Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKDT SUN SEP 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS WITH MOVEMENT OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. PRECIP FIELD PATTERN IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 60 HOURS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY THE STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA ON MON
AND EVENTUALLY INTO BRISTOL BAY BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WILL
EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED NORTHWARD AND GET ERODED OUT BY LATE MONDAY
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.

THE FLAT TOP RIDGE WILL ACT AS A MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISM AND
PUSH RAIN INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS IT MOVES UP THE WEST COAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH AS SATELLITE SUGGESTS AT LEAST
A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE IN ZONE 210 THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE ON
MON. SMALL CRAFTS WILL POP UP IN MANY AREAS ON THE ARCTIC COAST AS
WELL AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE BERING LOW AND THE WEAK
ARCTIC HIGH.

CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ON MON NIGHT AND
TUE. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN TO A MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY LATER MON NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

CF SEP 13