Small Craft Advisory 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1109 AM AKDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS AND GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING
OVER MOST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BECOME A STRONG EXPANSIVE
HIGH CENTER CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SUNDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE 12 TO 14
DEGREES CELSIUS SATURDAY AND 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS SUNDAY. AIR
THIS WARM ALOFT WILL DELIVER HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME DAILY RECORDS COULD BE EQUALED OR
BROKEN. 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL AS MUCH
AS ABOUT 250 METERS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
AT 850 MB ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 2.5 TO 3.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. OPERATIONAL GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST CANADA BY MONDAY. THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WILL TEMPORARILY KNOCK DOWN THE HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING A SHORT PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL REMAIN HOT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AT SOME SPOTS. BY TUESDAY...HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS HEIGHTS
REBOUND WITH THE HIGH CENTER BEING OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC SLOPE
AND BROOKS RANGE.

ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THE RIDGE PERSISTING
INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH HEIGHTS FALLING TO CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY PATTERN REMAINING PREDOMINANT OVER THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. FUEL MOISTURES ARE RUNNING
VERY LOW...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF FIRE STARTS
WITH ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AKZ205-INTERIOR AKZ202-EXTREME WESTERN
AKZ206-NORTHERN AKZ217-NORTHEASTERN AKZ208-SOUTHEASTERN AKZ224-
EASTERN AKZ226. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
AKZ206-AKZ218-PARTS OF AKZ220-AKZ224-EASTERN AKZ223-AKZ226.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR NEAR
THE ALCAN BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RED FLAGS ARE
UP THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-
AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ227.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...UP TO AROUND 10 TO 11 THOUSAND FEET... ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL INCREASE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT WHICH WILL DRAIN INTO
TANANA RIVER TRIBUTARIES ORIGINATING IN THE ALASKA RANGE. RIVER
STAGES ON THESE TRIBUTARIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING...AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ227.

&&

RF JUN 13