Small Craft Advisory 155, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
327 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW MAY
PRODUCE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
OVERNIGHT.

A 970 MB LOW NEAR ADAK IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN TO A 985 MB LOW NEAR
KUSKOKWIM BAY BY LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER
LOW MOVING INTO OUTER BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT FROM THIS SYSTEM
IN ZONES 211-212-214-215-216 AND IN ZONE 210 SUN. WITH 1000-850 MB
LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES MAINLY BETWEEN -2 AND +2 DEGREES
CELSIUS...PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN...SNOW...OR MIXED.

A 995 MB LOW ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN...DEEPENING TO A 986 MB
LOW 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY SAT EVENING. THIS LOW WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE
IN ZONE 207.

SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 50 MPH EXPECTED IN ALASKA
RANGE PASSES SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR
ZONE 226.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL RUNS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY CONVERGING ON A UNIFORM SOLUTION. HOWEVER
THE NEW 18Z GFS RUN AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
BY LATE TUE NIGHT...MOVING TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY LATE WED
NIGHT. A MAJOR STORM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TO NORTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF ANADYR BY WED EVENING. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO BE 950-955 MB WED AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER THIS TIME...BY FRI AFTERNOON THE
LOW POSITION COULD BE NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND OR UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE WEST...WEAKENING TO AROUND 980 MB BUT STILL A STRONG
SYSTEM. WINDS COULD MAX OUT AT STORM FORCE IN MARINE AREAS
PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225 NEARBY COASTS... WITH SEAS
MAXING OUT IN EXCESS OF 15 FT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND CHUKCHI
SEAS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST FROM
WALES TO GOLOVIN AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST NORTHWEST OF CAPE
KRUSENSTERN DEVELOPING WED. ELEVATED SEA LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE.
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS STORM.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SEE EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

RF NOV 13