Small Craft Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
316 AM AKDT SUN OCT 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
OCCLUDED 987 MB LOW HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS AS OF
10Z...LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL VERY SLOWLY THROUGH TUE EVE AS IT
TAKES A CYCLONIC LOOPING COURSE IN THE SOUTHERN BERING. BY TUE
AFTERNOON...GFS/NAM COMPROMISE TAKES THE CENTER TO NEAR 59N/178
WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOUT 992 MB. A PERIOD OF RAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AS THE OCCLUSION BOWS NORTHWARD.

A NEW LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1002 MB. THIS LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
BY MON MORNING...DEEPENING TO AROUND 992 MB. PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST TODAY INTO
MONDAY. MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE WITH 1000-850 MB
MEAN TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO...PLUS OR MINUS...OF
ZERO CELSIUS.

HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE
IN ZONE 227. NO REPORTS AVAILABLE IN AREAS WHERE HIGH WINDS ARE
LIKELY OCCURRING...NAM12 INDICATING MAX WINDS TO 80-85 KT BETWEEN
750-875 MB AND 50-60 KT WINDS NEAR MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL AT THE
PRESENT TIME...WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH NOON TODAY.

IN ZONE 225...WINDS NOW GUSTING TO 50+ MPH AT ANTLER CREEK
PLATFORM WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MAX WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW 60 MPH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
WITH MAX 50-60 KT AS LOW AS 850 MB. ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS CAN
CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED...LOW END WARNING LEVEL GUSTS...AROUND 70
MPH...MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
WIND PRONE AREAS OF ZONES 223 AND 226 THIS MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE INCREASE. TEXAS CONDO SITE NOW SHOWING
INITIAL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. 700
MB WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE PROGGED TO MAX OUT AT
AROUND 90 KT FROM AROUND 15Z-21Z MON. MAXIMUM GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE NORMALLY WINDY SPOTS IN ZONE 223...GUSTS TO
80 MPH IN THE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS IN ZONE 226.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTER INTERIOR WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH A MUCH WEAKER
UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF OCT 13