High Wind Watch 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM AKDT SUN OCT 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA MONDAY AND MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHEAST TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN
ALASKA. THIS WEATHER WILL RANGE FROM STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS...TO HEAVY RAIN...AND TO HIGH SURF WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL
EROSION.

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 80 MILES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
PASSES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND ALL DAY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR DELTANA...AND THE TANANA FLATS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND ALL DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS ENDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SOUTH WINDS TO 60 MILES AN HOUR ARE LIKELY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE
OF THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND ALL DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST OF NORTHERN ALASKA...INCLUDING THE YUKON DELTA...NORTON
SOUND...KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE NULATO HILLS...LOWER YUKON VALLEY...
AND THE LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THEN COME
AROUND FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH... ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTON SOUTH AND ADJACENT ZONES INCLUDING THE YUKON DELTA...
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND THE NULATO HILLS. THE LOW WILL DIMINISH
AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.

FOR NORTON SOUND...AS WINDS BECOME WEST ON TUESDAY...WAVES AND
SURF WILL INCREASE ON SOUTH FACING AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
SOUND. HIGH SURF AND COASTAL EROSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PEAK LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE NOT QUITE IN FULL AGREEMENT YET ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW. THE DETAIL OF THE EXACT TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE SEA HEIGHTS OVER NORTON SOUND. NORTH FACING
SHORES WILL HAVE SOME INCREASE OF SURF TUESDAY WITH EAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT DUE TO THE FETCH LENGTH OF THE WINDS AND
SPEED OF THE LOW...THE HIGH SURF OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORELINE AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THOUGH SURF WILL BE HIGH...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST COAST. HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH MAY OCCUR OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AMOUNTS MAY REACH 2 INCHES ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE NULATO HILLS DUE TO UP SLOPING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOW PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN
NORTON SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES. THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN IS THE WEST SHORELINE
OF NORTON SOUND...INCLUDING SAINT MICHAEL'S...ON WEDNESDAY. SURF
WILL BE HIGH...THOUGH COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE THE
FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEA HEIGHT COMPUTER
FORECAST MODELS WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO DETAIL OF THE LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TRACK. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.
&&

DA OCT 13