High Wind Watch 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 PM AKST TUE MAR 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID TERM. GOOD DYNAMICS MOVING
UP THE WEST COAST SHOW UP ON ALL THE MODELS BUT THE DETAILS ARE
LOST AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA WITH
A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE BERING
SEA. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST
TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY. MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW UP THE WEST COAST TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE COAST.
A 506 DAM CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL HELP PUSH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST AND ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL EXIT THE STATE BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE STATE INTO SUNDAY.
AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE AT 5 BELOW C AT 12Z OVER
FAIRBANKS AND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 3 ABOVE C BY
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THEM BACK DOWN TO
AROUND 8 BELOW C BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...981 MB LOW OVER THE WEST BERING SEA WILL DRIFT NORTH
OVER LAND AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL. A WEAK LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
MOVE NORTH IN THE FLOW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ACROSS THE SEWARD
PENINSULA...THE CENTRAL NULATO HILLS...AND CONTINUING SOUTHEAST
OVER COOK INLET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A CONCERN FOR
HEAVY SNOW IN SOME OF THE WESTERN ZONES SO WILL MAINTAIN ALREADY
ISSUED WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS. A 959 MB LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC TO BE NEAR SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING. CHINOOK
FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE COAST TO OVER
THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY FRIDAY NIGHT THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ISSUES. THE 1046 MB HIGH IN THE HIGH
ARCTIC WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES UP THE WEST COAST THIS WILL NOT HOWEVER HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST HOWEVER THEY WILL TURN MORE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

NORTH SLOPE...UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201 AKZ202 AND
AKZ203 AS THE WINDS CAME UP A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY THAN MODELS
WHERE SHOWING. WINDS CONTINUE WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK WITHOUT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
FROM BARROW WEST THURSDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING NORTH THE FLOW TONIGHT
SO WILL MAINTAIN WARNINGS AS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
INCREASE SNOW RATIOS TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY ENDING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND MAY
EVEN BRING SOME FREEZING RAIN TO AKZ214 AND AKZ215 THROUGH
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.

INTERIOR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW IN THE INTERIOR THOUGH AREAS
WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS IN AKZ221 AND AKZ219 MAY SEE SOME MINOR
AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. CHINOOK WINDS SETTING UP FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. WILL ISSUE A WATCH
FOR HIGH WINDS IN AKZ225 AND AKZ226 GUSTING TO AROUND 70 MPH.
STRONG WINDS ALSO IN AKZ223...BUT NOT EXPECT TO REACH 70 MPH AT
THIS TIME. GOOD WARM FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE CHINOOK WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE TANANA VALLEY UP INTO THE 30S ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY WARM THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.
&&

SDB MAR 13