High Surf Advisory 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1250 PM AKDT MON OCT 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MODELS APPEAR TO BE VERIFYING ON THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 51N/171W AT 18Z MON. MODELS IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE THROUGH 06Z WED.

PROGGED POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE...
06Z TUE    972 MB     50 MILES S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
12Z TUE    964 MB     50 MILES ESE OF DALL POINT
18Z TUE    965 MB     NEAR THE YUKON RIVER DELTA
00Z WED    969 MB     NEAR STUART ISLAND
06Z WED    976 MB     50 MILES EAST OF UNALAKLEET
12Z WED    984 MB     RAPIDLY DISSIPATING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR

RAIN OVER ZONE 214 SPREADING TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA-ZONE
215-SOUTHERN ZONE 216-ZONE 227 BY LATE TONIGHT...AND OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST COAST-WESTERN INTERIOR AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR BY TUE AFTERNOON. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN
ZONES 214-ZONE 215-SOUTHWESTERN ZONE 216...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NULATO HILLS.

THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE WEST COAST...ZONE 215...AND OVER MOST WEST COAST
AND ARCTIC MARINE ZONES. GUSTS TO 60 MPH EXPECTED IN THE
UNALAKLEET AREA TONIGHT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED
IN ZONE 215 THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL GENERATE HIGH SEAS. HIGH SURF LIKELY ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH. EASTERLY GALES
DEVELOPING OVER MARINE ZONES 230-235-240 TUE. WINDS COULD
APPROACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.

AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTER...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PUSH WATER OUT OF NORTON SOUND RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
SEA LEVELS AND TIDES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS BACK UP...BUT MAXIMUM STORM
SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE THAN 1 FOOT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES.

STRONG CHINOOK EVENT ON TAP FOR AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE
TONIGHT AND TUE...NAM MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE WINDS
MAXING OUT AS HIGH AS 65 KT AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL...AND AS
HIGH AS 80 KT ALOFT BELOW 700 MB. HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUE
IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

&&

RF OCT 13