Gale Warning 80, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
138 PM AKDT WED OCT 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND NW
PACIFIC AND WITH A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND NW CANADA WILL
BECOME HIGHER AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS SETTING UP
FOR A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THIS FLOW PATTERN WITH RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH. MODERATE SOUTH
CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THU AND AGAIN SUN
WITH SW SLOW IN BETWEEN THOSE PERIODS.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE OVER THE NE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE MOVING NE THU.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA TO -4C
SOUTHERN INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO -2C TO 0C SW ALASKA
TONIGHT AND OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR THU.

SURFACE...
A 1018 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST FROM THE LOW TO
DEADHORSE AND POINT HOPE...WILL MOVE TO ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THERE INTO FRI. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED THU.

A LOW NEAR YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO THE SW YUKON TERRITORY THIS
EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE NE. THIS WILL CAUSE 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE SE INTERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT...HEAVIEST ALONG THE SE ALASKA
RANGE. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY END THU AM AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

A LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN TODAY.

A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF COLD BAY NOW WILL MOVE NEAR COLD
BAY BY 4AM THU...INTO THE SE BERING BY 4PM THU...AND TO NEAR ST
MATTHEW ISLAND AS A 982 MB LOW B 4PM FRI...AND TO THE BERING
STRAIT AS A 1012 MB LOW BY 4PM SAT. THIS WILL CAUSE NE GALES IN
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND STORM FORCE THU. THIS HAS LEAD
TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONE 213. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE WIND GUSTS
TO 50-60 MPH THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA RANGE PASSES THU AND THU
NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL MOVE NORTH
TO THE YUKON DELTA TO KODIAK BY 4PM THU...TO NORTON SOUND TO
DENALI BY 4AM FRI...TO THE BERING STRAIT TO KOTZEBUE TO EAGLE BY
4PM FRI. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START AS SNOW NORTH OF THE FRONT AND
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

PRECIPITATION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW SE INTERIOR...WITH 2-4
INCHES SE ALASKA RANGE. LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH SLOPE.
THU...SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN SW AK WITH 1 INCH SNOW AT MOST.
THU NIGHT...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
 WITH 1-2 INCHES SNOW.
FRI...1 INCH SNOW NORTHERN INTERIOR. MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY 4AM THU
AS THE GFS DEVELOPS A MUCH STRONGER LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THAN THE NAM. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS PREFER THE STRONGER GFS
SOLUTION.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
NE WINDS 50G70 MPH WILL LEAD TO HIGH SURF ON THE NORTH SHORE OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND THU-FRI NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER REMAINS HIGH ON THE KOYUKUK RIVER AT HUSLIA BUT IS NOW
STARTING TO FALL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.
HIGH WIND ADVISORIES FOR AK223-225-225-227
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ200.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING PKZ500

&&

JB OCT 13