Gale Warning 61, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
328 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 72 HOURS BETWEEN THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE WEST
COAST BY A 527 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS THE CENTER PINBALLS AROUND. A STRONG SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST FLATTENS OUT. ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE RIDGE WILL
ROTATE NORTHEAST THURSDAY SETTING UP ANOTHER CHINOOK FLOW
EVENT FOR FRIDAY. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR BEING PULLED IN OVER THE
WEST COAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS
TEMPERATURES TO AREAS WEST OF FAIRBANKS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IN THE EAST TEMPERATURE AROUND 9 CELSIUS OVER FAIRBANKS THIS
AFTERNOON...COOLING TO AROUND 2 CELSIUS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN WARMING TO AROUND 6 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

SURFACE...981 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING NORTH TO JUST
OUTSIDE NORTON SOUND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FILLING AND DRIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTH. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING AND TO THE ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TODAY AND
TO THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT. A LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE FLOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO COOK INLET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
BEGIN TO FILL. A STRONG LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC FRIDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

NORTH SLOPE...PERIODS OF MIXED SHOWERS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE EAST OF BARROW. GALE FORCE EAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY LET UP ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG EAST WINDS MAY
PILE UP SOME WATER IN THE BAY EAST OF BARTER ISLAND TODAY BUT NOT
SURE OF THE IMPACTS IF ANY SO WILL HAVE SOMEONE CHECK LATER THIS
MORNING.

WESTERN ALASKA...WITH THE LOW PINBALLING AROUND OFF THE COAST
EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
THAT MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT GETS DRAGGED OVER THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SOME
GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH TODAY TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN Z214...Z215...SOUTHERN Z216...AND WESTERN Z227 WITH MODELS
SHOWING NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX AND SOME CAPE IN THE AREA ON THE
FRONT END OF THE COLD AIR.

INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TAPERING OFF BY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS MORNING
EAST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AND NORTH OF THE YUKON
RIVER. MODELS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THE DRY CHINOOK FLOW TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF TANANA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND A LONG FETCH OF OPEN WATER MAY PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUES EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SMALL STREAMS FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHWEST AREAS. MOST OF THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL RUNNING LOW DO
NOT EXPECT ANY ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ227.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.
&&

SDB SEP 13