Gale Warning 45, NWS Fairbanks, AK

100 
FZAK52 PAFG 252147
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
147 PM AKDT MON MAR 25 2013

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-261300-
147 PM AKDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA. A 1016 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND MOVE
TO KOTZEBUE TUE MORNING AS 1018 MB LOW...THEN DRIFT NORTHWEST ON WED.
WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THU AM.

$$

PKZ200-261300-
NORTON SOUND-
147 PM AKDT MON MAR 25 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-261300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
147 PM AKDT MON MAR 25 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT NORTH WINDS TO 35 KT IN THE
BERING STRAIT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-261300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
147 PM AKDT MON MAR 25 2013

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-261300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
147 PM AKDT MON MAR 25 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT N WINDS 30 KT NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT BEFORE NOON. FOG...SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CF/SDB MAR 13

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AKDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT INITIALLY BUT THEN DIVERGE THEREAFTER.
THE NAM HOLD THE PRECIPITATION IN MUCH LONGER OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT WESTWARD TO FOLLOW THE COLDEST
AIR...PRESUMABLE TO BE WITH THE STRONGEST OVERRUNNING WILL OCCUR.
THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS. THINKING IS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAREST TO WHERE THE STEEPEST
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE. WHICH MEANS THAT THE GFS MIGHT BE MORE
CORRECT WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF MAY BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE GFS AT THE END OF THE MID
RANGE RUN BECAUSE THE GFS COOLS NORTHERN ALASKA BACK DOWN NEXT
WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THAN SUN AS THE TRANSITION ZONES CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND WOBBLE
BACK AND FORTH.

SECOND COLD AIR MASS SITTING OVER THE WEST COAST AND WORKING ITS
WAY DOWN TO THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE COLDEST AIR
WILL END UP FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WESTWARD BY TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THEN.

WINDS ON THE WEST COAST AND IN PARTICULAR THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. THIS MAY FLIRT
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE ZONE...EXPECT FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW TO
PILE UP THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF MAR 13