Gale Warning 44, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
143 PM AKDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT INITIALLY BUT THEN DIVERGE THEREAFTER.
THE NAM HOLD THE PRECIPITATION IN MUCH LONGER OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT WESTWARD TO FOLLOW THE COLDEST
AIR...PRESUMABLE TO BE WITH THE STRONGEST OVERRUNNING WILL OCCUR.
THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS. THINKING IS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAREST TO WHERE THE STEEPEST
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE. WHICH MEANS THAT THE GFS MIGHT BE MORE
CORRECT WITH THE PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF MAY BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE GFS AT THE END OF THE MID
RANGE RUN BECAUSE THE GFS COOLS NORTHERN ALASKA BACK DOWN NEXT
WEEKEND. WOULD EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THAN SUN AS THE TRANSITION ZONES CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND WOBBLE
BACK AND FORTH.

SECOND COLD AIR MASS SITTING OVER THE WEST COAST AND WORKING ITS
WAY DOWN TO THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THE COLDEST AIR
WILL END UP FROM ABOUT THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY WESTWARD BY TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THEN.

WINDS ON THE WEST COAST AND IN PARTICULAR THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. THIS MAY FLIRT
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE ZONE...EXPECT FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW TO
PILE UP THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF MAR 13