Gale Warning 42, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
237 PM AKDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA AS SEVERAL DISTINCT FEATURES WILL BE EFFECTING THE REGION.

A COLD LOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND
ASSOCIATED 1015 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AND WILL BE CENTERED NEAR BARROW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A 1025
MB SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO EASTERN NORTON
SOUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 1017 MB. 1037 MB HIGH
NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WEAKENING TO 1025 MB AND MOVING TO
BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING 996 MB LOW JUST
EAST OF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND
BY THURSDAY EVENING AND WEAKEN TO 1004 MB. A 992 MB LOW WILL MOVE
OFF OF JAPAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 946 MB JUST
SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA BY NOON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS...REACHING BRISTOL BAY SAT EVENING.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FEATURES NEXT NEXT THREE DAYS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY IN PRECIPITATION AND SNOW FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNTIL A MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE SOURCE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

THE COMPUTER MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND DOES LOOK TO BE INCREASINGLY CLEAR AS THE
COLD ARCTIC LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WHILE MOISTURE WITH
THE ALEUTIAN LOW GETS PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE REMAINS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.

NORTH SLOPE...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW HEADED TOWARD BARROW AND
PRESSURES FALLING INLAND...WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE MAX NOW. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO SNOW IN MOST AREAS, THE
AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD RIGHT UNDER THE LOW...BUT UNLESS SKIES
CLEAR PROBABLY NO COLDER THAN AROUND NORMAL MOST AREAS.

WEST COAST...BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG EXTENDS FROM NEAR WRANGEL
ISLAND SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF WRANGEL IS NOW
APPROACHING THE BERING STRAIT FROM THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONLY
A MINIMAL SNOW MAKER FOR WESTERN ALASKA.

INTERIOR...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF
FAIRBANKS...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS THUS FAR OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER YET. MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND THIS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST FRIDAY. HOW FAR EAST IT
MAKES IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE
ALASKA RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RT MAR 13