Gale Warning 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
207 PM AKST WED FEB 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND SEWARD PENINSULA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND BE LOCATED OVER NOME BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOUR FORECAST. THE NAM IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR BUT
DIVERGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED
NEAR THE YUKON DELTA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECASTED BY THE MODELS
TO DEVELOP OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY 18Z THURSDAY AND WEAKEN INTO A
SHORTWAVE. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SEWARD PENINSULA AND FORECASTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXTENDING ALONG THE BERING STRAIT. THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN LOCATED OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND BY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN
ALASKA...BRINGING ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND
POOR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO BE
CANCELLED OR EXPIRE AT 6 PM. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OVER THE AREA WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IN PARTICULAR...THERE WILL BE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES POSTED FOR BERING STRAIT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF A
HALF MILE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 25 MPH.
ALSO EXPECT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY AS
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND
VISIBILITIES AT HALF OF MILE AT TIME. CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA AND
NULATO HILLS...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

NORTH SLOPE...RELATIVELY QUIET ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTH
SLOPE AREA WITH JUST COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. AS THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SEWARD PENINSULA BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THIS WILL BRING CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NORTH SLOPE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY MUCH A STRUGGLE TODAY ACROSS
SOME AREAS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. FOR THE GREATER
FAIRBANKS...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 10 TO 15F DEGREES COOLER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WHILE SOME AREAS ELSEWHERE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
EITHER BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION OR HAVE WINDS THAT HAVE HELPED
TEMPERATURES REACH UP TO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT FAIRBANKS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THE
INVERSION TOMORROW. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...BUT THEN
TO DROP DOWN ON FRIDAY AS EXPECT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213-AKZ215.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230.

&&

MAK FEB 13