Gale Warning 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 PM AKST FRI FEB 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...TROUGH FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL PERSIST WHILE A LOW 60 MILES WEST OF LISBURNE MOVES TO SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND 9AM SUN THEN TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOME 3PM
MON. COLD AIR IN THIS LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER THE OUTER WEST COAST
OF ALASKA. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER INTERIOR BECOMING MODERATE
SOUTHERLY BY 9AM SAT WITH CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS ALASKA RANGE WHILE A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SURFACE....988 MB LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS DISSIPATING BY 3AM SAT.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS TIED TO A PREVIOUS
LOW AND OCCLUSION NOW MOVING EAST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE
FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A 965 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION
WILL MOVE TO KING SALMON TO KODIAK 3AM SAT...THEN TO BETHEL TO
VALDEZ 3PM SAT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR ANIAK 3AM SUN WITH THE
OCCLUSION EXTENDING EAST AND DISSIPATING.

MODELS...NAM AND GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT...AFTER WHICH NAM CURVES THE UPPER LOW IN THE BERING
FARTHER WEST..PREFER THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THIS REGARD THOUGH IT
DOES BEAR WATCHING AS THE TELLING FACTOR WILL BE WHERE THE
ASSOCIATED POOL OF COLD AIR WILLA ACTUALLY MOVE TO.

NORTH SLOPE...NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY AS OCCLUSION
MOVES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY BUT BY SAT NIGHT ENOUGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE TO WARM
THINGS UP...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

WESTERN ALASKA...AS CLOUDS SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
EXPECT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES TO END. THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREA NAMELY THE YUKON
DELTA...LOWER YUKON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NULATO HILLS. EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT LOCAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER THE YUKON DELTA AS WELL. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES. SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES AT NOME WESTWARD AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NEAR KOTZEBUE. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS SATURDAY
AND AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED THERE LATER
IN THE DAY...OR POSSIBLY BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS THERE IS GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LIGHT SNOW TURNING TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND ENDING FROM THE WEST NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS PICKING
UP THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO SUN MORNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION...SO
WILL HAVE WIND ADVISORIES OUT BEGINNING SAT MID MORNING FOR BOTH
ALASKA RANGE ZONES. TEMPS WARING INTO THE 20S BOTH DAYS AROUND
FAIRBANKS...AND EVEN WARMER IN THE HILLS AND BROAD PASS. AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY ITS POSSIBLE A
PERIOD OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JL FEB 13