Gale Warning 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 PM AKST FRI FEB 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FROM CANADA
NORTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHWEST ALASKA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE RIDGE TOWARDS
WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND EXTENDING TOWARDS SOUTHERN INTERIOR. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND WEAKENING INTO A SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY AND THE YUKON DELTAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
BERING STRAIT AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHWARD TO THE YUKON
DELTA. THIS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
ALASKAN RANGE. ALLOWING FOR SOME INCREASED IN WINDS TO WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALASKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

WESTERN ALASKA...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE YUKON
DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA AND WITH SOME LOCALLY INCREASED
WINDS WILL CREATING BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE 25 TO 35 MPH
OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND ALONG WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 4 TO 6
INCHES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION HAS
PROMPTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTIC PATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BUT THE BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES HAZARDOUS.

NORTH SLOPE...MAIN ISSUES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW
AND CERTAINLY SOME BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS ALONG
POINT HOPE NORTHWARD TO POINT LAY. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL
ZONES 225 AND 230 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHERE GALE
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVER
THE RIDGE IT WILL ALSO PULL SOME MOISTURE UP INTO NORTHWAY.
BIGGEST STRUGGLE HERE IS THAT PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED
SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER FAIRBANKS AREA ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS...NAM..ECMWF..AND SREF INDICATE ONLY NOW
DEVELOPING OVER FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THE HRRR-AK MODEL DOES INDICATE
SOME RADAR REFLECTIVITY MOVING OVER THE GREATER FAIRBANKS AREA IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HOURLY
PRECIPITATION FROM THE HRRR-AK DOES NOT INDICATE ANYTHING
MEASURABLE FOR THE AREA. THUS WE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR TOMORROW AND OPTED FOR FLURRIES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

MAK FEB 13