Brisk Wind Advisory 99, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1218 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A VERY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEAR LAKE SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH CENTER
OVER THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A LOW CENTER WILL SPLIT
OFF FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVE WESTWARD TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN WEST COAST ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
DRAG A POOL OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. BY FRIDAY
THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTON SOUND AREA
WESTWARD...WITH MODERATELY COLD AIR REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND. THE BERING SEA RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE UPPER HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ARCTIC OCEAN. A SLOW GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE BY MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS.
SOME COOLING MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF
POINTING TO A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS LESS BULLISH ON THIS
COOLING TREND.

ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST TONIGHT...BUT
MODERATE SOME BY MID DAY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE. WIND
CHILL VALUES OVER THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST WILL APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

OVER THE INTERIOR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS IN ZONES 219...WESTERN ZONE 220...
AND ZONE 221. WINDS ALOFT OVER SUMMITS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40 MPH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILL AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE SUMMITS. WINDS AT SUMMIT LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN DECREASING ON FRIDAY.

LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN ZONE 214 FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A MODERATE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE BERING SEA
AND MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS DALL POINT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTON SOUND SATURDAY.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR SYSTEM...AT THIS
TIME SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN 25 KT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

RF MAR 13