Brisk Wind Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
601 AM AKST WED JAN 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR IN SOLUTION THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS EXCEPT THAT THE
ECMWF BREAKS OFF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE Y-K
DELTA MUCH EARLIER SUCH AS LATE WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOVEMENT OF
PARENT LOW TO THE WEST OF ST. MATTHEW ISLAND IS THE LIKELY ROUTE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND
THIS WILL DRIVE THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN ALASKA WHILE
ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE UP TO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND
START TO MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL
CREATE SOUTHWESTERN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BE EARLY THU
MORNING. BY THIS TIME A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SHUNTED NORTHWARD AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT TO
SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR THOUGH.

THERE IS EXTREME DIFFERENCES ONLY AT 96 HOURS THOUGH. THE GFS IS
HOLDING ONTO THE THEORY ABOUT DROPPING DOWN A POWERFULLY COLD
UPPER LOW ONTO THE WEST COAST BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY
SUN. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO MENTION OF THIS WITH THE ECMWF SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS A BIT FURTHER.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW MOVING NORTH IN THE BERING SEA IS CREATING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE Y-K DELTA
AREA...THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS OVER. A FEW INCHES
WILL POSSIBLY FALL TODAY BUT THAT WILL BE IT.

WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL AND MOVE WEST BUT A SURFACE LOW SPIN OFF FROM THE PARENT LOW
FORMS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND MAY KEEP THE WINDS
BLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED TIME.

THE ARCTIC COAST IS BEHAVING NICELY AND HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF JAN 13