Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
413 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL CLOUD SHIELD IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION IN THE CLOUD BAND IS LIMITED TO FLURRIES OR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS. SCATTERED OR POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN
PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND/OR
THURSDAY AS THE FILLING LOW MOVES NORTHWEST...ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2
INCHES MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. AT 12Z TUE...THE LOW CENTER IS
NEAR PORT HEIDEN WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 972 MB. CURRENT MODELS
PROGGING THE LOW CENTER TO BE NEAR NUNIVAK WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
975 MB AT 12Z WED...BUT WITH A MUCH LOOSER CIRCULATION.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 213 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT
VISIBILITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST...THE PINCH IN THE SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE ISOBARS HAS DRIFTED A BIT NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER WINDS AT POINT HOPE BUT NOTICEABLY STRONGER WINDS AT POINT
LAY AND WAINWRIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
ZONE 201 THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME WED.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WILL SPIKE UP WIND SPEEDS ALOFT AND CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH
IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES TODAY. NAM12 CROSS SECTION ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE DELIVERS AREAS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60-70
KT BELOW 700 MB FROM THE CURRENT TIME THROUGH AROUND NOON TODAY...
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 225-226-227 TODAY. RF

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z ECMF SHOWED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ALSO LOOKED
QUITE A BIT LIKE THE ECMF ENSEMBLE MEAN AT 120 AND 132 HR. WE
WOUND UP USING QUITE A LOT OF THE 12Z ECMF IN OUR MID- RANGE
SOLUTION...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IT AND
THE GFS ARE QUITE APPRECIABLE AT THAT RANGE. THE GFS HAS A STRONG
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN MOST
OF ITS RUNS...AND THE CURRENT (00Z) OPERATIONAL RUN IS FAIRLY
REPRESENTATIVE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES SHOW QUITE A BIT MORE
SCATTERER THAN THE ECMF THOUGH. THE ECMF RUNS TEND TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH A WEAKER LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BERING
SEA...MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY...THEN PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. OVERALL A MUCH LESS STORMY SOLUTION FOR OUR WEST COAST
ZONES THAN THE GFS.  DJH

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF/DJH JAN 13

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