Brisk Wind Advisory 258, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
245 AM AKST SAT DEC 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST FEW
RUNS. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO.
STILL SEE SOME ISSUES WITH HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SURFACE
ELEMENTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF TO GET REASONABLE
PRECIPITATION NUMBERS OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE US GETTING TOO WARM
TODAY AND SUNDAY SINCE THERE IS NOTHING MOVING IN TO SCOUR OUT THE
COLD IN THE INTERIOR.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...TROUGH LIES EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE UPPER
YUKON RIVER EXTENDING WEST OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. 523 DAM
CLOSED LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER KOBUK AND WILL SPIN
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AS A 516 DAM CLOSED LOW
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHWEST. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TODAY WITH THE 540 DAM HEIGHT PUSHING NORTH TO AROUND
EAGLE TODAY. A SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER BRISTOL BAY TO OVER
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE BACK OF THE RIDGE
TO BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL ROTATE
NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. AT 850
HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP BUT DO NOT EXPECT A HUGE
WARM UP IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES FLATTEN OUT PRETTY QUICK.
ON THE WEST COAST BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT MOST OF IT WILL
OCCUR IN THE MIDDLES YUKON RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE FROM AROUND 12 BELOW CELSIUS TO AROUND 6 BELOW
CELSIUS.

SURFACE...1042 MB HIGH NEAR 77N 155W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1047
MB CENTER OVER FARO IN THE YUKON TERRITORY. THE HIGH OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH IN THE YUKON WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO BRISTOL BAY TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO AND OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE LATER THIS MORNING. THEN PUSH NORTH TO EXTEND FROM
THE PRIBILOFS TO GALENA TO EAGLE SUMMIT THEN EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

ARCTIC...WIND CHILL ISSUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL AREAS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WIND CHILL
PROBLEMS WILL END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL HANG IN
THROUGH TODAY BUT LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SUNDAY
MORNING. CHASING STRATUS...FOG AND ARCTIC HAZE WILL AGAIN BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUES.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOCAL WIND CHILL ISSUES WILL GO
AWAY THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR PUSHES NORTH AND CLOUDS MOVE OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST BUT
EXPECT THEM TO DROP OFF A LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. INLAND AREAS
WILL SEE SNOW THAT IS ALREADY FALLING AROUND MCGRATH MOVE NORTH
INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS MORNING AND THEN NORTH TO THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF AMBLER AND MOST OF IT WILL BE EAST OF THE NULATO HILLS. LOOK
FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF AMBLER WITH AROUND AN INCH
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP 25 TO 35 DEGREES TODAY AS THE
CLOUDS AND FRONT MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA.

INTERIOR...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS NORTH ALREADY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE. TEMPERATURES AROUND FAIRBANKS
HAVE ALREADY RISEN 10 DEGREES OR MORE AND WILL RISE ANOTHER 15 TO
25 DEGREES TODAY. SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN DELTA JUNCTION
THIS MORNING...BUT NEXRAD RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH AT 3AM.
HOWEVER...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY...AND UP TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS IN THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. SNOW WILL BE TAPERING
OFF SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. TANANA JET IS IN FULL VOICE
AROUND DELTA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH. DO
NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN AROUND DELTA UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THEY SHOULD TAPER OFF TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ224.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

SDB DEC 13