Brisk Wind Advisory 207, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
353 AM AKST WED NOV 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO WAFFLE AROUND WITH THE TEMPERATURES. GFS
REMAINS THE WARMEST OF THE GROUP WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH COLDER.
ECMWF IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SO WILL USE A MIX OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF TEMPS. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF QPF NUMBERS SO WILL USE A
BLEND THEN LEAN ON THE SREF FOR THE POPS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...MASSIVE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE STATE
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FLATTENING OUT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE. MODELS STILL SHOW A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER CHUKOTKA AND MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS
MORNING AND MOVING TO THE ALCAN BORDER TONIGHT. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC AND MOVE DOWN THE BACK OF
THE RIDGE TO EXTEND FROM FORT YUKON TO KING SALMON BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN
CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND PUSH DOWN THE BACK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO EXTEND FROM DEADHORSE TO UNALAKLEET...THEN CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST TO EXTEND FROM FROM YUKON TO ANCHORAGE BY LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO MAKING THEIR WAY INTO TO INTERIOR...THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH AND FOR HOW LONG AT THIS POINT. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
IT IS BACKING OFF ON JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE. THIS IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE EVENT FROM THE WEEKEND...SO WITH THAT SAID WILL
LEAN ON THE ECMWF WHICH WORKED BETTER LAST TIME AROUND. PRETTY
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 40 TO 60 KTS SO EXPECT SOME
STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SUMMITS.

SURFACE...1028MB CENTER OVER EASTERN INTERIOR AT 9PM TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE OCCLUDED...WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM
ALONG THE SIBERIAN COAST TO POINT HOPE TO THE YUKON DELTA AND
CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST TODAY TO EXTEND FROM POINT HOPE TO THE
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST TO
LIE FROM BARROW TO EAGLE BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE STATE LATER TODAY AND LIE FROM BARROW TO NOATAK TO
GAMBELL LATE TONIGHT MOVING TO EXTEND FROM DEADHORSE TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. EXPECT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG
GRADIENT OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP SO WILL
KEEP ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE PASSES. SNOW FALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR MORE ISSUES AS THE LOW
COMBINE AND SOME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW
IN THE COLD AIR.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LONG FETCH OF STRONG WESTERLIES
INTO THE COAST WILL AGAIN BRING PROBLEMS WITH COASTAL FLOODING.
GUIDANCE IS LOWER THAN LAST EVENT BUT WILL ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE AREAS THAT ALREADY HAVE WATCHES OUT.
MCGRATH REPORTS 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY AT MIDNIGHT AND EXPECT
THEY WILL GET A FEW MORE BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ON THE COAST FROM KOTZEBUE SOUTH HAVE REPORTED FREEZING
RAIN...THOUGH HOW MUCH IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. ALL RAIN IN ZONE
214 THIS MORNING WITH A MIX IN ZONE 212. LOOK FOR COLD AIR TO
MOVE IN RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WED NIGHT...THU
MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO ALL SNOW. MANY AREAS
WILL SEE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF 16 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

INTERIOR...ON THE RAGGED EDGE THIS AFTERNOON ON WHETHER IT WILL
CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN...OR JUST
STAY SNOW. MODELS ARE NOT MUCH HELP SO AM LEANING TOWARD THE LAST
SYSTEM IN DECIDING WHERE THAT LINE WILL BE. PRETTY GOOD WIND
EVENT FOR THE SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR AND EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
WIND WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO VALLEY LEVEL SO LOOK FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW CREATING PROBLEMS. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS WILL BE
GUSTING INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE WHILE WINDS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
GUSTING INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

SDB NOV 13