Storm Warning 98, NWS Anchorage, AK

852 
FZAK51 PAFC 062329
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 984 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA AT 994 MB EARLY SAT MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A
1001 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT MORNING WILL MOVE
100 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY SUN MORNING AT 992 MB THEN MOVE
INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT...BECOMING S 30 KT TOWARDS MORNING W OF CAPE
CLEARE. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-071500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-071500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-071500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT W 10 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-071500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-071500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT
BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE MORNING N OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OBVIOUS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALREADY EXHIBITS
SIGNS OF A MATURE SYSTEM WITH DRY TONGUE BEGINNING TO CARVE OUT A
NOTCH IN THE MOIST ASCENT WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT...ALREADY WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. GOES
275-100MB SATELLITE WIND PLOTS DEPICT A SOLID 90-120 KT JET STREAK
ENTERING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS THE MOST ENERGETIC PART OF A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE BEAUFORT/CHUKCHI
SEA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE EAST ASIAN JET
CURRENTLY DIGGING OUT THE LONG-WAVE HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
IT ASSOCIATED WITH A KAMCHATKA UPPER LOW AND IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER RIDGE SITS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OVER THE LOWER 48 SAVE FOR AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE RIDGE
BLOCKING THE PATTERN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
BASED UPON MODEL FIELD COMPARISON TO SATELLITE IMAGERY IT APPEARS AS
IF MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE IS TOO SLOW IN DEEPENING THE SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST JET WINDS HAS STILL YET TO MOVE
OVERHEAD AND PUT THE LOW IN THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT PORTION OF THE
JET IN LEFT EXIT REGION...I WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM
THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY PREDICT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 980
MB RANGE BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 1800Z TODAY. EVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE USUALLY ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH MSLP AGREES WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS ON PRESSURE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QUICKLY
FILLING THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP COOK INLET LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED IN BOTH DOMAINS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FIRST IMPACTS OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE
WINDS OVER MARINE AREAS...A SOLID AREA OF GALES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL AFFECT THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS MORNING
WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR THE BARREN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN COOK INLET.
THE FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN FROM KODIAK ISLAND
ARCING THROUGH THE NORTH GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PUSH
INLAND...ENVELOPING MOST OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL IN PRECIPITATION. BEHIND
THE FRONT PROPER ON FRIDAY EVENING...MASS CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BRING BACK THE AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW THROUGH THE
GAPS AND INDUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW POSITION AND DOWN-INLET GRADIENT
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO STAY OUT OF WEST ANCHORAGE. HOWEVER...STRONG
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WILL BRING WINDS FURTHER
DOWN THE HILLSIDE THAN USUAL..AFFECTING THE LOWER HILLSIDE AND EAST
ANCHORAGE. AREAS FROM KENAI NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
IN THE LATER AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD...THEN PICK UP RAIN AGAIN
IN THE LATE EVENING WHEN THE REST OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ROUGHLY DILLINGHAM TODAY KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THOSE AREAS. NORTHERLY FLOW 15 TO 30 MPH WILL
DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE NEXT WAVE AND FRONT MOVES IN FROM KAMCHATKA.
THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN BRINGING PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS AND RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA AS IT PROGRESSES WEST TO
EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE CURRENT WESTERN ALEUTIAN SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SLOWLY PROPAGATES THE LONG-WAVE EASTWARD WHICH KEEPS THE
SOUTHCENTRAL IN A WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 120 140 150
         GALE 120 125 128 129 132 136 138 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL SEP 13