Storm Warning 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

721 
FZAK61 PAFC 060015 RRA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
414 PM AKDT THU SEP 5 2013

RETRANSMISSION

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-061500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 997 MB LOW AT 48N 154W WILL MOVE TO 55N 153W BY LATE FRI MORNING
AND DEEPEN TO 982 MB. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 58N 151W LATE FRI 
EVENING AT 992 MB THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE SAT MORNING. A 999
MB LOW AT 52N 145W SAT MORNING WILL MOVE TO 56N 143W SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 5 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT...BECOMING SE TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ352-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 5 2013

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

451 
FZAK61 PAFC 061154
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 986 MB LOW NEAR 54N 153W MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO 57N 152W
FRI AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 997 MB LATE FRI EVENING AS IT
MOVES TO 60N 152W...AND THEN MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES SAT MORNING.
A 1002 MB LOW AT 52N 144W SAT MORNING MOVES TO 59N 142W SAT NIGHT AT
994 MB.

$$

PKZ351-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 TO
23 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

958 
FZAK61 PAFC 062329
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 984 MB LOW NEAR 57N 152W WILL INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AT
994 MB EARLY SAT MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 53N
144W SAT MORNING WILL MOVE TO 59N 143W EARLY SUN MORNING AT 992 MB
THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 23
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25  KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.   

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 5 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SPINNING UP AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE ALASKA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ALASKAN LOW OF THE LOW IS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH DUTCH HARBOR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON PRECIPITATION TIMING/AMOUNT AND ON HOW
FAST THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA WEAKENS...BUT THESE ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR FOR A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE DATA SPARSE SOUTH.
THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS IS ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE DEVELOPING NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KODIAK AROUND THE
MIDDLE TONIGHT AND THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY
MORNING...CATCHING UP TO THE WARM FRONT AND CREATING A "BENT BACK"
OCCLUSION. THIS OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED
AROUND NOON...CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. AFTER THIS THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TRAIL BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW. ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN TO
FALL APART.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FORM AS THE SHORT-WAVE NEAR DUTCH HARBOR MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. IT WILL PHASE WITH A SYSTEM IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET ON FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE. IT WILL ALSO BE FURTHER EAST...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
ASHORE NEAR OR EAST OF CORDOVA SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL REACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN BERING RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST AND NORTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEN "PINCH OFF" OVER THE BERING SEA ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. ON SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
ROUGHLY ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 130 132 136 137 138 140 155 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKDT THU SEP 5 2013

AKZ181-052100-

...ASHFALL FROM VENIAMINOF IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...

ASHFALL FROM VENIAMINOF IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEARBY
COMMUNITIES.

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.