Storm Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

766 
FZAK52 PAFC 011239
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 968 MB LOW 80 NM E OF CHIGNIK MOVES INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM AT 973
MB TUE AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPS NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 975 MB TUE
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TO 980 MB NEAR SAINT PAUL WED NIGHT. A 975
MB LOW FORMS THIS MORNING 50 NM N OF KISKA ISLAND AND STRENGTHENS TO
971 MB 60 NM NE OF KISKA ISLAND TUE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING TO 977
MB 125 NM SE OF ATKA WED NIGHT. A 976 MB LOW FORMS 225 NM SW OF DUTCH
HARBOR TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 90 NM SE OF CHIGNIK AT 975 MB WED
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-020300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W OF THE SHUMAGIN 
ISLANDS...WINDS DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-020300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E TO N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SW WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-020300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-020300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. SE OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BERING SIDE...E 20 KT PACIFIC SIDE.
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT BERING SIDE...N 25 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 4 FT
BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-020300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-020300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT BERING
SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W
WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W
WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E TO N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND
35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-020300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W
WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND
25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-020300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 


$$

PKZ179-020300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 1 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1215 PM AKST MON DEC 31 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH
FAIRLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN
BERING. THE THIRD MAJOR LOW IN FOUR DAYS IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND HEADED DUE NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS LOW IS BEING FUELED BY A 140 KT DUE SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING WARM
AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA HAVE BEGUN TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS APPROACHING
LOW...AND HAVE THUS RECENTLY SWITCHED TO NORTHERLY ACROSS COOK INLET
FROM KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY. GAP WINDS...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM...ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS WELL. OUT
WEST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING AS THE
REGION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOWER
PRESSURES TO THE EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITIONS/TIMING OF
THE APPROACHING LOW CENTER. THE MOST GLARING DISCREPANCY IS WITH THE
NAM MODEL THAT IS NEARLY 10 MB WEAKER THAN ALL OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW...AND HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH-UP FOR SEVERAL RUNS. ALL OF THIS
LEADS TO A PREFERENCE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR UPDATES TO THE 0-48
HOUR FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A COMPLEX LOW
REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...WITH THE GFS
SPREADING THE ENERGY BETWEEN TWO MAIN LOWS...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS FOCUS MORE OF THE ENERGY ON A SINGLE LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE JET STAYING FAR TO THE
SOUTH...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN. THUS THERE IS A PREFERENCE TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEYOND 48 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE VALLEY...AND THE UPPER
HILLSIDE OF ANCHORAGE. THIS STORM WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
STORM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY JUST
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING...SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH
THAN THE PREVIOUS STORM. THIS MEANS THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE LOCATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...UNLIKE THE STORM YESTERDAY WHERE THE STORM WAS
WEAKENING AND STRONGEST WINDS WERE MOVING ALOFT BY THE TIME THE STORM
CAME THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL. AS SUCH...THE WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
THE PREVIOUS STORMS. WHILE RAIN WILL STILL FALL AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING TURNAGAIN
PASS...WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY WET SNOW DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST...AS WITH THE LAST STORM...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERY
PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE THE FRONT AND LOW MOVE PAST. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
THIS STORM THAN THE LAST...SO THINK ANY AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BE ISOLATED AND
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. OVER BRISTOL BAY...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ALEUTIAN
RANGE...PRIMARILY AROUND LAKE ILIAMNA. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
WARNING-LEVEL.

BERING AND AND ALEUTIANS...GALE-FORCE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF
ADAK BY TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN DROP INTO THE BASE OF A VERY
LARGE BUT FAIRLY WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN BERING BY
TUE EVENING. OVERALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BERING SEA REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH INDIVIDUAL LOWS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND
SHORT-LIVED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PULL SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS WILL SHIFT MEAN FLOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAPID-FIRE WINDSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...IT WILL LEAVE THE
MAINLAND IN A FAIRLY MILD PATTERN. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...NO SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWNS ARE ON THE
HORIZON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 138 150
         GALE 125 128 129 140 141 155 160 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD DEC 12