Storm Warning 56, NWS Anchorage, AK

732 
FZAK62 PAFC 020030
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 50N 175W WILL WEAKEN TO 980 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
51N 164W SAT AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS 
IT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SAT NIGHT AND SUN. ANOTHER 
PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 54N 165E SUN AFTERNOON PUSHING A STRONG
FRONT TO THE CENTRAL BERING.
$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 1 2013

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 45 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 1 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 1 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 1 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE WIND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO N 25 TO 35 KT BY
MIDNIGHT. SEAS  IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

058 
FZAK62 PAFC 021208
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 51N 168W WILL MOVE TO 49N 154W AT 999 MB SUN
MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A LOW
WILL MOVE TO 50N 164E AT 965 MB SUN MORNING THEN MOVE TO NEAR 55N
170E AT 971 MB EARLY MON MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT NEARS THE
WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS TO THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING EARLY MON.

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 TO 60 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 TO 60 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF 176W. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST OF
176W...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING . 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
$$

963 
FZAK62 PAFC 030018
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 981 MB LOW NEAR 52N 165W WILL WEAKEN TO 1004 MB NEAR 48N 153W SUN
AFTERNOON. A 967 MB LOW NEAR 47N 153E WILL MOVE TO 54N 166E AT 966 MB
SUN AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 974 MB NEAR 57N 173E MON
AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 40 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT NE 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT N OF 56N. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING N 15 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON E OF 174W. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 2 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 TO 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$
TP

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1140 AM AKST THU FEB 28 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP COMPACT LOW IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS (GALE FORCE) ARE BEING OBSERVED ON THE NORTH TO EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSED SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IS HEADING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE TROUGH IN AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE APPROACHING LOW CAUSES WIND TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH. MIDDLETON
ISLAND RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP MOVING IN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IS
REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT FLOW HAS ALREADY
BACKED TO NORTHEASTERLY OVER SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY CALM ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS VERY WEAK AND DIFFUSE
WITH MULTIPLE FEATURES PASSING BY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND AN EXITING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW FROM THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

THE NEXT MAJOR STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS NOW INTENSIFYING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND HEADED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS SOLUTION IS VERIFYING BEST WITH EASTERN
GULF LOW AND OBSERVED WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF.
HOWEVER...DON'T PARTICULARLY LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION OF TRACKING
THIS LOW TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL WOULD EXPECT A SOLUTION MORE
LIKE THE GEMGLB WHICH WEAKENS THE MAIN LOW SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING
AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW OVER WEST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF/GEMGLB SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF MAJOR
STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FOR THE MOST
PART THEY HAVE SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE GFS MODEL
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS WELL BUT HAS BEEN FASTER AND FARTHER
NORTH COMPARED TO THE CLUSTER OF OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS LOW WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW STEADY PRECIP TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THERE WON'T BE A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AS THE UPPER CENTER HEADS INLAND. HOWEVER THIS IS A FAVORABLE
SET-UP FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE
MAT-SU. THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BUILDING RIDGE
RIGHT BEHIND IT MEANS IT WILL RAPIDLY BE WEAKENING AND SURFACE LOW
OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL BE DISSIPATING BY THAT POINT.
SO SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE. IN ANY CASE
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN A BIT SATURDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. SKIES WILL
THEN CLEAR OUT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OUT
AHEAD OF ALEUTIAN SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND AND HELP BLOCK THE ALEUTIANS SYSTEM FROM
MAKING IT VERY FAR EASTWARD. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHWEST COAST WILL BE RIGHT ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MEANING THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS COULD REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
STORM TRACK TO LEAN ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CONTINUE TO FAVOR STORM TRACK AS DEPICTED BY
THE ECMWF AND GEMGLB MODELS. NO MATTER WHICH STORM TRACK YOU GO WITH
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW CENTER. PLAN TO UPGRADE THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO WARNINGS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
IN ADDITION...EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AS COLD AIR QUICKLY WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT IF THE LOW IS A LITTLE DEEPER THAN FORECAST
WILL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK FAVORABLE ON
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR SAINT PAUL ISLAND WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY
SEA ICE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SEA ICE MAKES IT MORE OF A CONTINENTAL
TYPE CLIMATE...MAINTAINING COLDER TEMPERATURES AS AIR MOVES OVER
ICE INSTEAD OF WATER. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. WINDS ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG...BUT AT THIS POINT IT
DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE HIGH WIND WARNING THRESHOLD.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
THIS WEEKEND WILL CUT-OFF AND LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE POLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE IN PLACE SO THAT THE
NEXT TROUGH CROSSING THE BERING WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MAKE INROADS
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT STILL LEAVES
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND. THE
STORM WHICH TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLIES INTO THE BERING SEA RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE KEYING ON A MAJOR SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 187 191.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...170 172 175 176.
         GALE WARNING...155 165 171 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...165 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB FEB 13