Storm Warning 34, NWS Anchorage, AK

095 
FZAK52 PAFC 051220
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 952 MB LOW 510 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF
ATTU WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO 964 MB
130 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.WED...E OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.WED...N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BERING SIDE...10 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT
BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT
BERING SIDE....22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
BERING SIDE...27 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDDAY.
SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 50 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 50 KT
DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 50 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT E OF SHEMYA.
PACIFIC SIDE...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT E OF SHEMYA. SEAS 27 FT
BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.  
.WED...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 5 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON FEB 4 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AT
THE SURFACE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
SHARP THE TROUGH THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BUT OTHERWISE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CHIGNIK NORTHWEST
INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST RUSSIA. ANOTHER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS IS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND IS BEGINNING TO SPIN UP A POWERFUL SYSTEM
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN SYSTEM AND THE CHIGNIK/RUSSIA LOW
AND A RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST WHICH NOSES INTO
ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE CHIGNIK/RUSSIA LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH SLOWLY DECREASING MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA PRECIPITATION WILL END IN MOST AREAS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND
MOVE EASTWARD. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ANY PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. ANOTHER WARM AND MOIST SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD AND THUS CYCLONIC
FLOW...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A BERING
SEA/ALEUTIAN SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE IS A LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THAT WILL "BOMB OUT" TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 950 MB. THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY...THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THIS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
UPPER LOW AND CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IT WILL THEN
SLIDE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 175 176.
         GALE WARNING 170 172 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 13