Storm Warning 32, NWS Anchorage, AK

358 
FZAK61 PAFC 260008
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261500-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 55N 153W WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
57N 155W TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. A 980 MB LOW
WILL FORM NEAR 55N 145W MON NIGHT AND TRACK TO KODIAK ISLAND WED
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 57N 144W WED AFTERNOON 
AT 985 MB.  

$$

PKZ351-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

451 
FZAK61 PAFC 261236
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 980 MB LOW NEAR 56N 152W
WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. ANOTHER 980 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 54N 145W
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO 58N 153W WED EVENING AS IT WEAKENS TO
988 MB. 

$$

PKZ351-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN FEB 24 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS. THERE ARE
SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOWS AND
PRECIPITATION FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY THE GFS BEING FASTER WITH BOTH
FIELDS THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF (AND
UKMET AND GEM GLOBAL) ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO LEND
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF
AN OUTLIER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. A SERIES
OF LOWS IN THIS FLOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS TO SLIDE ALONG
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS JUST EAST OF KODIAK AND IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING. ANOTHER LOW IS SPINNING UP
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH AN EAST/NORTHEAST
TRAJECTORY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS
IS FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE KODIAK LOW WILL REACH THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS...BUT SOME SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WIND UP AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE AKPEN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND TO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA MONDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LARGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ALSO CENTERED FURTHER SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH ITS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS EVEN MORE SO
THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BE QUITE LARGE BY THIS TIME AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 970 MB. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY EVENING AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 161 181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150 155 172 175.
         GALE WARNING 120 130 132 160 165 170 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140 150 155 165 170 171 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 13