Storm Warning 194, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 071237
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. A 1004 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA BY EARLY MON
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-080300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. E OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...SE WIND 25
KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-080300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-080300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-080300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-080300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FROM UNALASKA E...E WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-080300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-080300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W OF UNALASKA...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. FROM UNALASKA E...E WIND
25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-080300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-080300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-080300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-080300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...FROM ATKA E...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W OF ATKA...NW WIND
30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT EXCEPT 11 FT W OF ATKA. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-080300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-080300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. E OF SHEMYA...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. E OF SHEMYA...S WIND 20 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT EXCEPT 10 FT E OF SHEMYA. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-080300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-080300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-080300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. ALONG THE COAST...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-080300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 7 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND
15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS ATTEMPTING TO REASSERT ITSELF
OVER THE REGION AFTER BEING PUSHED EASTWARD THE PAST TWO DAYS. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND ELONGATE IN PLACE. THE
WEAKENING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER RIDING OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE.
FARTHER WEST THERE IS A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SEA OF
OKHOTSK WITH A CUT OFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING A STRONG FEED OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING IN THE REGION NEAR
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN BERING SEA WITH THE LOW COMPLEX.
WHILE THE NAM IN PARTICULAR IS STILL DRAGGING BEHIND ON THE MOVEMENT
OF THE SECONDARY LOW THE ECMWF...GFS...UKMET ALL HAVE CONVERGED
NICELY WITH ONLY CENTRAL PRESSURE A POINT OF CONTENTION.
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE RESOLUTION ON THE NAM
HOWEVER MAKES IT THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT IS STILL CAPTURING SOME
DETAIL THAT IS DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE COOK INLET REGION
BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE REMAINING AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE
COOK INLET REGION AND UP THE SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD BE RAPIDLY COMING
TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG
DEVELOPING OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE
AT TIMES WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAUSES A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT TRAPS THE MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A NUMBER OF PLACES
ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN AN SATURDAY...WITH SOME COOLING OCCURRING BY
SUNDAY.
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD MAINLY ONLY SEE
SOME CLOUDS WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE LESS.

SOUTHWEST...THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA IS PUSHING THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE FARTHER WEST INTO THE BERING SEA AS COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THERE REMAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS WELL AS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
AREA IN THIS WARM AIRMASS AND WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE COOLING SOME ON SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE WARM CORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAUSES A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
TRAPS THE MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THERE TO BE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FOG
FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN AND A
PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES ON SOLUTIONS MONDAY AND
BECOMES OUT OF PHASE SYNOPTICALLY BY TUESDAY. THE GENERAL MID LEVEL
PATTERN REBUILDS ANOTHER RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WHILE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
MOVE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL DRIER
WITH WETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. AN EASTERLY POLAR WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY MIDWEEK AND INTO THE EAST BERING BY THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179 180.
         STORM 173 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1000 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

AKZ101-111-121-062100-

...AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL THIS MORNING...

A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
CONTINUE TO MOVE UP COOK INLET TOWARD ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU
VALLEY. THE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER BY NOON. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION
CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1012 AM AKST FRI DEC 6 2013

AKZ101-111-121-062100-

...A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING...

A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
CONTINUE TO MOVE UP COOK INLET TOWARD ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU
VALLEY. THE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER BY NOON. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION
CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING.