Storm Warning 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

189 
FZAK62 PAFC 050004
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 4 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051500-
400 PM AKST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 45N 164E RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS TO 52N
173E AT 952 MB TUE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 60N 179E AT 955 MB
WED AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING BY WED MORNING...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING INLAND.

$$

PKZ411-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 4 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO
13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 19 FT
BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 30 TO 40 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 65 KT. SEAS 40 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON NOV 4 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 65 KT. SEAS 30 TO 40 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON NOV 4 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 28 TO 35 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-051500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON NOV 4 2013

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 TO 33 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 3 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN
RUSSIA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC...WITH A LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS MOVING
EASTWARD...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
TODAY. THE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS OVER THE COPPER BASIN AND
GULF OF ALASKA AS THE GULF LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE STRONG LOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS VERY WELL. THE GFS REMAINS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
FROM WED MORNING AND ON...SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BERING BY INTO WED AFTERNOON.

CLOSER TO SOUTHCENTRAL...MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY WED EVENING. DRIER NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAIN RANGES CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE BACK END OF THIS PASSING LOW...CONTINUING TO KEEP
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA
THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL. GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE WEAKER AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER (REGARDING THE LOW FORMATION) NAM SOLUTION...AND THE
STRONG AND FASTER (REGARDING LOW FORMATION AND TIMING ON THE FRONT
CROSSING THE GULF) ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY EVENING AND STARTS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE FRONT FROM THE
WESTERN BERING LOW SWINGS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE USUAL GAPS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND COLD
AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH WED MORNING.
WINDIER AND WETTER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS
ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST FROM CAPE NEWENHAM NORTH. A WINTERY
MIX IS EXPECTED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL PUSH OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN A
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THE BACK
END OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD POOL DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN BERING AND TRANSITIONING OVER THE WESTERN COAST BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BERING THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE WILL BE
REINFORCED BY THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...AND WILL LIKELY GENERATE A
STORM SURGE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FROM CAPE NEWENHAM NORTH.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THIS VERY
REASON AND WILL CARRY A SIMILAR START TIME AS THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
WATCH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...
HIGH WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO BATTER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN BERING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
GO THROUGH A SECOND INTENSIFICATION PHASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT
RAPIDLY ADVANCES INTO THE BACK OF THE LOW AND GENERATES EXTREMELY
POWERFUL WINDS APPROACHING 100 MPH IN GUSTS NEAR SHEMYA TONIGHT.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUANCE FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS FOR
TONIGHT. MARINERS ARE URGED IN THIS AREA TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
POWERFUL WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO 40 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE BERING
SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING SEA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT
BERING LOW...HOWEVER IT WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA SWELLS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ON
THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...187 191 195.
         COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...155 161.
MARINE...HURRICANE 178 185 411 412 413.
         STORM 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 180 181 414.
         GALE 130 131 132 150 155 160 165 171 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SCHRECK