Storm Warning 157, NWS Anchorage, AK

951 
FZAK62 PAFC 012345
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 971 MB LOW AT 52N 176W WILL MOVE TO 57N 168W SAT AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN TO 983 MB THEN TO 63N 165W SUN AFTERNOON AT 988 MB. A 992 MB
LOW AT 49N 180 LATE SAT MORNING WILL MOVE TO 57N 168W SUN AFTERNOON
AT 986 MB.

$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI NOV 1 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU OCT 31 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW ARE TWO TROUGHS...ONE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND THE OTHER
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW LOCATED BETWEEN THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND HOKKAIDO ISLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS.
THE NAM STARTS TO GO ITS OWN WAY AFTER 60 HOURS AND THUS WAS
DISREGARDED FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF FEATURES. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA
IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. BUT THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONCERN AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH (WEAK) CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS AND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR TO THE AREA...AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH ANCHORAGE
AND UP TO THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS. AMOUNTS (IF ANY) ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAR
FROM THE PARENT LOW...WHICH WILL BE FILLING AND WEAKENING BY THAT
TIME. SOME TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE GULF. THIS WILL BE A SOMEWHAT "STANDARD" SYSTEM FOR THE
AREA...WITH WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND TURNAGAIN
ARM...AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN UP-SLOPE/COASTAL AREAS AND
LESS INLAND IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AND END
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN THE PRIBILOFS AND ALASKA PENINSULA LATER FRIDAY.
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE IT IS IN ITS STRENGTHENING STAGE...THEN GALES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA/PRIBILOFS AND THE
CENTRAL LOW BEGINS TO FILL. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND SATURDAY...WITH THE RESIDUAL FRONT REMAINING OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT HOKKAIDO/KAMCHATKA STORM WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATER SATURDAY...THEN
THE MAIN LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND BE NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172 173 174 175 175 177.
         GALE WARNING 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 178 179 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 13