Storm Warning 140, NWS Anchorage, AK

867 
FZAK52 PAFC 161713 RRA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170300-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 170 NM E OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 590 NM S OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT A SIMILAR STRENGTH BY LATE THIS EVENING. A 993 MB LOW 220
NM S OF GAMBELL WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TO 989 MB AND MOVE TO 75 NM W
OF GAMBELL BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 962 MB LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK
WEAKENS TO 964 MB FRI MORNING 190 NM NW OF ATKA.

$$

PKZ150-170300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-170300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-170300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-170300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-170300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-170300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-170300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-170300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-170300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-170300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-170300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-170300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 42 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-170300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
BUILDING TO 35 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 42 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-170300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-170300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ181-170300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-170300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS
15 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 13 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

021 
FZAK52 PAFC 162305
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 998 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. A 960 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE TO NEAR ATTU AT 963 MB THU AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 70 NM
NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 967 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-171500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-171500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-171500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-171500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 31 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-171500-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 32 FT BUILDING TO 41 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-171500-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
BUILDING TO 41 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
44 FT SUBSIDING TO 34 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-171500-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-171500-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
116 PM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD WELL INTO THE PACIFIC. THE LOW IS
WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD WHILE THE TROUGH DIGS AS
SHORT-WAVES DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AMPLIFICATION
OF THE TROUGH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
(175 TO 200 KT) AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

MEANWHILE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS MORNING
IS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND OVER
TOP OF A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC UP TO MAINLAND ALASKA. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
WITH THIS ORIGINATED IN THE TROPICS AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE A TRIPLE POINT IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA. THE BIG IMPACT OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS
IN TURN IS PRODUCING DOWNSLOPING IN SOME AREAS (RESULTING IN MUCH
LIGHTER RAINFALL) AND UPSLOPE IN OTHER AREAS (ENHANCING RAINFALL).

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT-TERM ARE WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND A CLOSED SPINNING WAY DOWN AROUND 40N 153W.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS CHANGED A BIT SINCE MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY
MORNING. MOST SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE FORMATION OF A LOW ALONG THE
SOUTH END OF THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING OF THE ORIGINAL LOW IN
THE TROPICS. THIS NEW LOW IS THEN THE ONE TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND TRACK OF THIS LOW
PERSIST AND AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS WELL AS THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
BELOW AVERAGE. THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL
IMPACTS. THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL TAP INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE (WHICH
WILL ONCE AGAIN STREAM NORTHWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA) AND THERE WILL
BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER
SHORT-WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY EXIT TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A NARROW BAND OF RAIN WILL PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY A
PIPELINE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT-WAVE WHICH WILL PUSH THIS BAND OF RAIN WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE TROPICS (AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE) WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH
MEANS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIP AND WIND FORECASTS. BASED ON
THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
INITIALLY HEAD TO KODIAK ISLAND...THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AND INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHILE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA STAYS MOSTLY DRY. AS THE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY RAIN WILL
THEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.

SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE TRIPLE POINT AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM TODAY...EXPECT WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER. THUS...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR REACHING HIGH WIND LEVELS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON A HIGH
WIND WATCH UNTIL HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH...EXPECT YET ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT
FOR MANY OF THE LOWLANDS (INCLUDING ANCHORAGE) AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH BEHIND THIS LOW.

STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING
DOWNSLOPE DRYING ON THE WEST SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. THUS...EXPECT
LITTLE RAIN IN THE LEE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN IN UPSLOPE AREAS. A FLOOD ADVISORY
IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG KENAI LAKE AND THE
UPPER KENAI RIVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS ARE
FALLING NOW...BUT THESE RAINS ON THURSDAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

OUT WEST...A SYSTEM NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY CROSS
THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
REMNANTS OF POWERFUL TYPHOON WIPHA (CURRENTLY AFFECTING JAPAN) WILL
THEN MAKE ITS WAY TO THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY AS A VERY DEEP
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. THIS WILL BE A VERY LARGE STORM SYSTEM SO
EXPECT IT TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM THE BERING SEA
TO SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD LATE THIS
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE STORY LATELY...THIS MEANS ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND WIND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE FORMER TYPHOON WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS WHERE THIS LOW SETTLES IN DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL PATTERN OF A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING/WESTERN ALASKA WITH
NUMEROUS SHORT-WAVES TRANSITING AROUND IT IS THE SAME. THUS...
EXPECT CONTINUES PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
PARTICULAR...WITH A LOW IN THAT GENERAL POSITION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WOULD BE IN THE FAVORABLE SPOT FOR FREQUENT RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN.
COOLER AIR WILL WRAP ALL THE WAY AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA...SO EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THE CURRENTLY BALMY
TEMPERATURES BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT SINCE IT RELIES ON THE PRESENCE OF A SHORT-WAVE
ROUNDING THE BERING TROUGH HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 121 125 (KENAI LAKE AND KENAI RIVER).
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 131 132 150 155 175 176 177 178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 13