Storm Warning 122, NWS Anchorage, AK

272 
FZAK62 PAFC 232334
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 23 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 MB LOW AT 51N 166W WILL MOVE TO 56N 166W BY LATE THU MORNING
AND DEEPEN TO 954 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 60N 172W BY FRI
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 983 MB. A 984 MB LOW AT 48N 175W FRI MORNING
WILL MOVE TO 51N 174W FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 3O TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 23 2013

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 23 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 45 TO 55 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

546 
FZAK62 PAFC 241157
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 MB LOW NEAR 55N 165W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 170W AT 969 MB EARLY
FRI MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR 62N 173W WHILE WEAKENING TO 998 MB
EARLY SAT MORNING. A 979 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 48N 174W EARLY SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. S OF 56N...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

178 
FZAK62 PAFC 242307
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 MB LOW NEAR 57N 167W WILL MOVE TO 59N 170W AT 974 MB LATE FRI
MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO 65N 170W WHILE WEAKENING TO 1011 MB SAT
AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW NEAR 46N 179E WILL MOVE TO 48N 175W AT 981 MB
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 24 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE TO SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

635 
FZAK62 PAFC 251134
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 25 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR 59N 169W WILL MOVE TO 62N 171W WHILE WEAKENING TO 
992 MB EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN WILL MOVE TO 65N 171W WHILE WEAKENING
TO 1010 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 47N 175E WILL MOVE TO 48N
172W AT 981 MB FRI EVENING THEN MOVE TO 47N 173W AT 984 MB SUN
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W OF 174W...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. EAST OF
174W...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT TUE OCT 22 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THERE IS A STORM SYSTEM SPINNING UP IN THE SOUTHERN GULF IN A
MOISTURE "STREAM" ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM JUST NORTHWEST OF UNALASKA UNDER THE BERING SEA
UPPER LOW. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IN THE MAIN STORM TRACK...STEERED BY THE BERING
LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EVEN
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING IN A SYSTEM
MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM/GFS. THEN THERE ARE LOCATION/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES WITH A "BOMB" MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM BEING FURTHER WEST (AND
STRONGER) WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR MAINLY CONTINUITY
REASONS THE ECMWF WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. SO
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN...THERE
IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/HOW STRONG THE ACTUAL WEATHER IS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE GULF WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AGREE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOSTLY EAST OF VALDEZ AND GLENNALLEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
CANADA BY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN EXTENSION OF THE THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA.

THE LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF UNALASKA WILL SLOWLY SPIN EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WILL "BOMB OUT" LATE WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND DECENT RAIN
RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS POWERFUL SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 950'S (MB) EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
IT CROSSES INTO THE BERING SEA. THE PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT RACES AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND FILL...BUT REMAIN IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE USUAL AREAS...THROUGH PASSES/CHANNELED TERRAIN...OVER
THE MARINE AREAS...AND THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM/HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT TOTAL AMOUNTS...AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON
WINDWARD AREAS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 155 165 172 179 180.
         GALE WARNING 132 138 150 160 170 171 173 174 175 176
                     177 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 13