Storm Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

373 
FZAK52 PAFC 110027
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF ST PAUL WILL MOVE NEAR ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AT 990 MB TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN. A
980 MB LOW 175 NM NORTH OF ATTU WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A 968 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF ATKA FRI MORNING WILL
MOVE TO 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST PAUL AT 968 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT SE 20 KT IN THE EVENING FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT
BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 45 KT. 
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 9 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY HAS A
RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND OF THE STATE WITH A LOW SITUATED IN THE FAR
WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE BERING SEA INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
THE SURFACE PATTERN IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND A FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF IT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN TO
JUST WEST OF KODIAK. THIS FRONT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE MULTIPLE SMALLER LOWS IN THE BERING SEA REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST ONE BEING NEAR ATKA THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
ON MOST OF THE FEATURES THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. IN PARTICULAR THE
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY IS RESOLVED VERY WELL BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE GFS STARTS AND
ENDS WELL WITH THIS LOW BUT TAKES THE LOW AN AN UNLIKELY MEANDER
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY NIGHT SO IT WAS NOT USED DURING THAT
PERIOD. THE MODELS ALL HAVE A STRONG LOW ENTERING THE BERING SEA FRI
NIGHT OR SATURDAY WITH THE NAM AND GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE LOW TRACK IS VERY CLOSE AND IS PROBABLY RELIABLE BUT SOME
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING SEA ARE LIKELY
AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS FURTHER AND BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER CURRENTLY IS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST WHERE THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLOWING SNOW IN EFFECT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES PAST
THAT AREA. AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST IT WILL BRING SNOW INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE
ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREAS NORTH TO THE ALASKA RANGE. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE MODEST AS THERE WILL BE LIMITED PRECIPITABLE WATER BY THIS
TIME WITH THE SYSTEM.
THIS FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING
BRINGING SNOW INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND TO
BRING A STRONG WARM UP TO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN IN
EARNEST IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND WINDS
INTO MOST AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AT SOME POINT
THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE ANCHORAGE AND NEARBY AREAS THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARMER
AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS THE COLD SURFACE AIR. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY NIGHT A
SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND RACE NORTHWARD OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVIER RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 13