Small Craft Advisory 968, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 4, 2013, 12:41 PM AKST (21:41 UTC)

Expired

Dec 4, 2013, 6:00 AM AKST

In force

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 040941 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1241 PM AKST WED DEC 4 2013

CORRECTED 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST GULF WED AFTERNOON AND STALL
THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ119-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-041500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-041500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-041500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN KAMISHAK BAY. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN KAMISHAK BAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-041500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-041500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-041500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 3 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 4, 5:20 AM AKST, 7 hours 21 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKST WED DEC 4 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW HAS NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON
SATELLITE  MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY COAST...AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW ALONG THE AKPENN...HOWEVER THE DISTURBANCE IS
SO MOISTURE LADEN THAT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF CAN BE SEEN
SLOWLY RETREATING TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS ALLOWING RAIN TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET. A BROKEN LAYER OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED THROUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND
HAVE NOW SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS
WHEN THEY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW QUICKLY TO BRING THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE DEVIL HOWEVER REMAINS
IN THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF HAVE ALL
FLIP FLOPPED AS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIP INTO NORTHERN
COOK INLET STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME INDICATE THAT ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL. THEREFORE THERE IS NOW
A SLIGHT RISK FOR VERY MIXED PRECIP STARTING LATE TONIGHT. SEE THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE...THERE
IS NOW A POTENTIAL THAT VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE COOK
INLET REGION STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT BELOW THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND LOWER MATSU VALLEY WILL
INITIALLY BE WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A DEEP SURFACE COLD
POOL...MEANING THAT PRECIP WOULD START OUT AS SLEET OR ICE PELLETS.
THIS SHOULD THEN START TO BECOME FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD POOL ERODES. A SECOND WAVE A RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO THEN QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BRINGING ENOUGH WARM AIR ALONG WITH IT TO WARM
THE SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL LEAVE THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AND MATSU VALLEY UNDER A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE ENTIRE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT A LIGHT COATING OF NEW ICE IS
POSSIBLE ON ANCHORAGE AREA ROADS THE STARTING WITH THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN...THE TRAIN OF LOWS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OVER THE MAINLAND...THEN OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...THEREFORE WE WILL CANCEL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND EVEN IF TEMPERATURES DO REACH ABOVE FREEZING THEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 33 DEGREES AND SURFACES WILL REMAIN FROZEN. WE
WILL THEREFORE EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN THE SAME AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE PRIBILOFS ON THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNKNOWN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE SUCH THAT A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT IN THE MODELS EITHER DIRECTION COULD MEAN A VERY DIFFERENT
STORY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL FALL AT LEAST PART
OF THE TIME...AND WINDS COULD REACH 50 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT
COULD BE FAIRLY MESSY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS ARE STILL CHANGING THEIR STORY FROM DAY
TO DAY WITH REGARD TO HOW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEHAVE DURING THAT
TIME...AND THUS HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO GET.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE COOK INLET AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 152 155
MARINE...GALE 160 170 172 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

KOCHEVAR/SCHRECK DEC 13

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1235 PM AKST WED DEC 4 2013

AKZ101-111-121-145-050112-

...CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

SOME SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE TAKING PLACE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WHICH IS MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS RIDING OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND THAT MAY CAUSE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY SWITCH THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THIS IS NOT A REPEAT OF THE RECENT FREEZING RAIN EVENTS AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS GENERALLY VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY OVER THE AREA. IT WILL
GIVE SOME PLACES A THIN GLAZE OF ICE WHILE NEARBY LOCATIONS DO NOT
HAVE ANY. BE AWARE THAT IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT IT WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SOME VERY SLICK
LOCATIONS AROUND THE ENTIRE COOK INLET REGION FROM CLAM GULCH
NORTHWARD...INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEY.

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2013Every small craft advisory in 2013

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.