Small Craft Advisory 963, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
645 PM AKST MON DEC 2 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OMEGA BLOCK CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE EAST. TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE...A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING IS ALLOWING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO SPILL OVER THE WEST COAST TO THE WESTERN
CONFINES OF THE RIDGE. THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
ADAK...BUT IS ALREADY BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY MID
WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT INTO TOMORROW WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO HAVE DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW QUICKLY TO DEVELOP THE
PACIFIC LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. THE GFS/EC ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY JUST WEST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WAS TREATED AS AN OUTLIER.
THE MODELS ARE NOT BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS FAST AS
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO KODIAK ISLAND
AND WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...NOW THAT GAP WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST HAVE
DISSIPATED...THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EARLY TERM SHIFTS TO THE FOG
POSSIBILITY ALONG COOK INLET. THE 00Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING INDICATES
THAT THE INVERSION HAS STRENGTHENED SO MUCH THAT THERE IS NOW A LAYER
ABOVE FREEZING STARTING AROUND 1700 FT STRETCHING TO 7000 FT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL ARE NEAR ZERO.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG COOK INLET SHOULD BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON
WEDNESDAY WILL HELP BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP TO THE AREA AND END THE
FOG.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN...A LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TUE NIGHT THROUGH
THU...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ELONGATED OVER THE MAINLAND
AND EASTERN PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW...HOWEVER
INLAND AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MAY VERY WELL NOT SEE MUCH AT
ALL. A SECOND LOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE MAINLAND. MODELS DIVERGE
FOR THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE COOK INLET REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155 161.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 180 195.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEC 13