Small Craft Advisory 92, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKST MON JAN 28 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH. A
SURFACE FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
ACROSS THE AKPEN AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE PRIBILOFS AND COASTAL PORTIONS
OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY TO KODIAK ISLAND AS SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
THE ADVANCE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE EASTERN BERING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
AKPEN...ALLOWING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO COME TO AN END OVER THESE
AREAS AS RAIN BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK...FORCING THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAD BEEN IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO CANADA. VERY COLD AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE BUT THE STRONG GAP WINDS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...PUTTING AN END TO WIND CHILL CONCERNS IN THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BRINGING AN
APPROXIMATELY 975 MB SURFACE LOW INTO THE EASTERN BERING NEAR DUTCH
HARBOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NEAR THE
PRIBILOFS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SLIGHT VARIATIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GULF...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE ONGOING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GULF. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION HAS
ALREADY BEGUN ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY NEAR HOMER WHERE
4-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AND
BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ALOFT...WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW BY WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND SNOW BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING...WHILE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA INTO THE EXTENDED TERM AS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
BERING GRADUALLY EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 161 171 195
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 121
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130 138
         GALE WARNING 120 127 132 136 137 140 150 160 165 170 172
                      175 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 126 127 128 130 140 141 160 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB JAN 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
137 AM AKST TUE JAN 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 AM     BLIZZARD         3 S ST. PAUL            57.17N 170.22W
01/28/2013                                      AK   ASOS

            VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE OR LESS AND WINDS 40 MPH GUSTING TO
            50 MPH FROM 0753 AM UNTIL 716 PM.

0353 PM     BLIZZARD         4 SW ST. GEORGE         56.58N 169.66W
01/28/2013                                      AK   ASOS

            1/4 MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS WITH WINDS 40 MPH GUSTING TO
            50 MPH FROM 929 AM UNTIL 353 PM.

0354 PM     BLIZZARD         6 SW KING SALMON        58.68N 156.65W
01/28/2013                                      AK   ASOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WITH WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO
            45 MPH FROM 1204 PM UNTIL 354 PM.

0445 PM     BLIZZARD         1 SSE DILLINGHAM        59.05N 158.52W
01/28/2013                                      AK   AWOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WITH WINDS 33 MPH GUSTING TO
            45 MPH FROM 1045 AM UNTIL 445 PM.

0408 PM     BLIZZARD         1 WSW IGIUGIG           59.32N 155.90W
01/28/2013                                      AK   AWOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AND WINDS 35 MPH GUSTING TO
            55 MPH FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 408 PM.

0515 PM     BLIZZARD         2 SSW ILIAMNA           59.75N 154.90W
01/28/2013                                      AK   ASOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WITH WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO
            40 MPH FROM 210 PM UNTIL 515 PM.

0456 PM     BLIZZARD         1 NNE MANOKOTAK         58.99N 159.05W
01/28/2013                                      AK   AWOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AND WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO
            40 MPH FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 456 PM.

0555 PM     BLIZZARD         E CAPE NEWENHAM         58.65N 162.07W
01/28/2013                                      AK   AWOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AND WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO
            50 MPH FROM 1115 AM UNTIL 555 PM.

1207 AM     BLIZZARD         1 NNW PLATINUM          59.02N 161.82W
01/29/2013                                      AK   AWOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY WITH WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO
            45 MPH FROM THE 28TH AT 1013 AM UNTIL THE 29TH AT 1207
            AM.

1156 PM     BLIZZARD         3 ENE KIPNUK            59.93N 164.03W
01/28/2013                                      AK   ASOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY FROM 456 AM UNTIL 1156 PM.

0110 AM     BLIZZARD         6 SE TUNUNAK            60.53N 165.11W
01/29/2013                                      AK   AWOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AND WINDS 35 MPH GUSTING TO
            50 MPH FROM THE 28TH AT 426 AM AND STILL CURRENTLY
            OCCURRING.

1136 PM     BLIZZARD         37 WSW TUNUNAK          60.37N 166.25W
01/28/2013                                      AK   AWOS

            1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY AND WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO
            45 MPH FROM 656 AM UNTIL 1136 PM.

&&

DSTRICKL