Small Craft Advisory 752, NWS Anchorage, AK

114 
FZAK51 PAFC 291139
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300300-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF
THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. A NEW LOW FORMS
115 NM SW OF YAKUTAT AT 998 MB LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-300300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-300300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-300300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-300300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-300300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT SUBSIDING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40
KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-300300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 11 FT W OF THE BARREN. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-300300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-300300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-300300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT.GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-300300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 3
FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT SEP 28 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE IS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING
SEA ON MONDAY...AND SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE HANDLING OF SMALL
SCALE FEATURES IN THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA. BUT OVER-ALL THE
DIFFERENCES ARE NOT THAT LARGE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING SOME ON TUESDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY DRY.
THERE MAY PERIODICALLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS SPIN ABOUT...BUT IT WILL MOSTLY MEAN
THERE WILL BE SOME (MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL) CLOUDS AROUND.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND/OR DEFORMATION
BAND ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
BUT CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME PRECIPITATION. THIS "SYSTEM" WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE MAINLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SYSTEM
SLIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CLIP THE COASTAL
AREAS ON MONDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY...INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING
MONDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING ON TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 136 137 138 150 155 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 13