Small Craft Advisory 588, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
640 AM AKDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
 AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES OVER THE EASTERN BERING TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE ARE TWO PRESSURE CENTERS IN
THIS TROUGH...WITH ONE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF SAND POINT. THIS SYSTEM IS STREAMING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER ALASKA AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE...RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TERRITORIES WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT. GUSTY WINDS HAVE INCREASED
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA...JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. PATCHY FOG IS MAINLY OVER THE
BERING AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE BERING AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
THE NAM AND GFS USED FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND GFS AND ECMWF FOR
THE SOUTHWEST AND BERING. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF SAND
POINT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN
GULF KEEPING THE AREA IN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN GULF AND THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INTERMITTENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE MAIN LOW PUSHES A
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND TAPER OFF ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE EASTERN BERING. TURNAGAIN
ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE GUSTY CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. KODIAK WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF AND JUST INLAND
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT FROM THE CORE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA WILL SUPPRESS RAIN ALONG THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALASKA PENINSULA...
THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING WILL BRING WAVES OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MEANDERS IN
THE EASTER BERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE GALE STRENGTH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS SOUTH OF PENINSULA. STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.
WINDS WILL TAPER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES FROM
KAMCHATKA LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WETTER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...120 130 132 136 137 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KH AUG 13