Small Craft Advisory 554, NWS Anchorage, AK

736 
FZAK52 PAFC 201244 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
445 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

CORRECTED ZONE 150 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210300-
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA INTO MON. A 1010 MB LOW AROUND
400 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ150-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-210300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...E OF COLD BAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. FROM COLD BAY W...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-210300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-210300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT S OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT S OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NW 10 KT S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT BERING SIDE...6 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-210300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
DENSE FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
DENSE FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
DENSE FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 7 FT. DENSE
FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-210300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DENSE FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

011 
FZAK52 PAFC 202354
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY SUN EVENING.
$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. DENSE FOG. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT FRI JUL 19 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREAS FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DOMINATED BY
STABLE HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVES WITH A BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...
AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A SURFACE LOW SPINNING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS HAS SPAWNED OFF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH IS
HEADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING...
BRINGING WITH IT LOTS OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS IS
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND HEADING FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
ASIDE FROM PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY EXTENSIVE DENSE FOG.

MEANWHILE...IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS HEADED EASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN ALASKA. A STRONG UPPER JET DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SIBERIA AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND.
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS ARE PRODUCING SHOWERS...
PRIMARILY INLAND. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE EASTERN BERING HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST WHICH IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NAM IS LAGGING A BIT WITH A VORT-MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN BERING TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED WITH OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM IS ALSO AN OUTLIER WITH TRIPLE POINT LOCATION OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING AND DEPICTION OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH HANDLING
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
POSES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. AT THE MOMENT THE TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND RAIN OUT AHEAD OF IT IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED.
THE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEUTRALLY TILTED TONIGHT...BUT THEN WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO AS THE MAIN VORT-MAX MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
TRACKS RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON SATURDAY.
THIS MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE RAIN WILL
FALL. BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...THIS WILL BE A MINOR RAIN EVENT IN AREAL
COVERAGE...DURATION...AND QPF. WILL TRY AND CONVEY THIS MESSAGE
IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A PIECE OF THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND
CONNECT UP WITH THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS AND A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TREND
TOWARD WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN ON MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BERING TROUGH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN. BRISTOL BAY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORT-WAVE AND CAN EXPECT JUST A FEW SHOWERS. THE WARM FRONT BACK
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARD BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF RAIN WITH THIS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AS YOU HEAD NORTHWARD FROM BRISTOL BAY. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL
PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINING TO THE WEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS AND FOG
ONSHORE...KEEPING COASTAL AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING
SEA. WARM ADVECTION UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG
OVER THE EASTERN BERING/WESTERN MAINLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND. MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE ARCTIC ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 13