Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2013

Small Craft Advisory 409, NWS Anchorage, AK

May 14, 2013

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at May 14, 2013, 4:00 PM AKDT. It was in force for 5 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2013, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired: May 19, 2013, 4:00 AM AKDT
In force: 5 days
Issued by: NWS Anchorage, AK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at May 14, 4:00 PM AKDT, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 4:00 PM AKDT, 0 minutes before

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON IS A STRONG LOW THAT IS CENTERED IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND
EXTENDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING OUT
OF THE LOW EXTENDS OVER THE CENTER OF THE STATE AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH IS MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AS THE CORE OF THE COLD LOW IS BEGINNING TO DIG TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL DRIVE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF A LOW IN THE
ARCTIC OCEAN THAN CROSSES THE ALCAN BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND MEETS UP WITH A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND IS BUILDING EASTWARD. THE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA AS WELL.
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THERE IS A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING TO
THE EAST AND THEN WILL REACH THE KODIAK AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE IS REALLY NOT A LOT TO DISCUSS AS FAR AS
THE MODELS GO TODAY. THERE IS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW THAT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE TO THE
FORECASTS. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH GIVES A HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS BEEN RECEIVING
SNOWFALL SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH THEN PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL BE ENDING FROM THE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS LIKELY THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
THE COLD AIR AND CLEARING SKIES AFTER THIS SNOWFALL.
THE RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. FOG IS ALSO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION STOPS AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND PROBABLY VERY LITTLE
FOG AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL MOSTLY REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
EXCEPTION IS FROM AROUND BETHEL TO THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. THERE WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ARCTIC DIGS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE BRINGING IN
UN-SEASONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ONCE MORE. THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FILTER EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND ENCOMPASS SOUTH CENTRAL BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY...INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU
AREAS. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A RECORD LATE SNOW EVENT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNT FOR SUCH A LATE DATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 13

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 14, 3:58 PM AKDT, 2 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 14, 4:00 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	3 days
May 15, 4:00 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFC	3 days
May 15, 4:00 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	36 hr
May 15, 4:00 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	4 days

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2013 Every small craft advisory in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.