Small Craft Advisory 368, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT FRI APR 26 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
GULF AND SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND
SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
INTERIOR. THE BERING SIDE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR USING THE NAM MODEL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EXTENDING OUT TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
HAS PREDOMINATELY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE SATELLITE IS
SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH BUT NO REPORTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS. IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE LOW
POSITIONED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO KODIAK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE BARREN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN SHELIKOF WILL GET GAP WINDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DESCENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS WEATHER
REGIME WITH MAJORITY OF OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
EXTENDING UP INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA REPORTING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE WILL RECEIVE LIGHT
SNOWSHOWERS. THE WINDS BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA
COASTLINES WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE BERING WILL BE CONTINUE TO CAUSE
PATCHY FOG. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE GAP WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND BRINGING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE NEXT WEATHER REGIME WILL BE APPROACHING TUESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA. THERE WILL BE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA. THE BERING SIDE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SAINT MATTHEW AREA TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL CAUSE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...160.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PLD APR 13