Small Craft Advisory 332, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON APR 15 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE MAP AFFECTING MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE
A COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT HAS NOW BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT SO FAR HAS BEEN SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE REGION...AS WELL AS A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
HAS BEEN UNDERCUT BY A COMPLEX LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC...RESULTING IN A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. THE
COMPLEX ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE COMING
DAYS...WITH SEVERAL WEAKER PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING AWAY AND MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE YESTERDAY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE ONLY
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BEFORE ELONGATING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY
MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. MEAN LOW POSITION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND THE FORECAST WILL BE BLENDED TOWARD THE NAM TO
REFLECT THIS SHIFT. AS A RESULT...IT NOW APPEARS KODIAK CITY MAY STAY
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AVOID MOST OF THE PRECIP.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MOST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL
MAKE FOR LOTS OF SUN AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
OVER THE COPPER BASIN...THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE COPPER BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WITH LITTLE FANFARE EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT OF
SNOW THAT FALLS ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY EAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING
RELATIVELY STATIONARY...LOCATIONS CURRENTLY SEEING ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL SEND A
SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER FRONTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EFFECTS FROM THESE FRONTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS THE MAINLAND ON THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SUN
AND NEAR-NORMAL SPRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO MOST OF THE ALASKAN
DOMAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 175 176 179 411 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON APR 13