Small Craft Advisory 232, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU MAR 14 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF AND THE EMBEDDED LOWS WITHIN. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE MID
TERM UNTIL THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES. IN THE LONG RANGE THE
MODELS ARE DOING DECENT WITH HANDLING MAJOR FEATURES OUT EAST BUT
THEY ARE STRUGGLING WITH FEATURES OVER THE BERING. BY MONDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE BERING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE EAST. THE
SURFACE LOW ATTACHED TO THIS LOW IS BRINGING PRECIP TO AREAS ALONG
THE GULF COAST. ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES DUE
TO THE GRADIENT BEING PRODUCED BY THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND
RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE NORTHERN BERING. FURTHER
OUT WEST A FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS DIMINISHES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF WILL KEEP
BRINGING SNOW TO AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THIS SNOW HAS ALSO BEGUN TO SPILL INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THINGS
WILL THEN START TO CLEAR OUT ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE
GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE RIDGING THAT HAS DOMINATED THE BERING FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO ERODE IT MAKES ROOM FOR THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST. BY
THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL HAVE MADE IT OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND WILL
HAVE BROUGHT PRECIP TO AREAS AROUND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THEN BY FRIDAY
EVENING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE REGION.

ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING SEA...WAY OUT WEST A FRONT IS MAKING IT
CLOSE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. BY TONIGHT IT WILL HAVE MADE IT TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THEN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BEHIND THE FRONT WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES...120 411 412 413 414 172 175 176 185 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...126 127 128 130 140 141
                                414 160 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DK MAR 13