Small Craft Advisory 1048, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 PM AKST THU DEC 26 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...REASONABLY GOOD THROUGH ABOUT 72 HRS OR SO. LATE
SUNDAY DISAGREEMENT BEGINS WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF 3 OR 4
WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING
AND ALEUTIANS. THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN AND ITS GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A MILDER SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AT 3AM WED THE
GFS PLACES A 990 MB LOW NEAR TOGIAK WHILE EC SHOWS A 967 MB STORM
ABOUT 80 S OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST...A WEAK TROUGH
LIES FROM THE BERING SEA EASTWARD ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND ACROSS THE
GULF. IT IS THE WIND FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE THAT
PUSHED THE CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN CHANGE TO A MORE GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO BRISTOL BAY LATE ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE COAST
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW INLAND. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BY LATE SUNDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CHANGE TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AS A SERIES OF
WEAKENING FRONTS/TROUGHS APPROACH SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ALL THE MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE PLUS SIDE OF NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT HARDLY AGREE AT ALL WITH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. THE GFS HINTS AT A
POSSIBLE CHINOOK WIND FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AREAS LATE TUE AND WED.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TEMPERATURE TREND ITS NOT WORTH MENTIONING
ANYTHING BEYOND MON IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE CONTINUED
MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131.
MARINE...GALES 127 173 174 175 176 177 179 185.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...127 139 160 180 181 185.

DEC 13