Small Craft Advisory 1033, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA IS SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH A
SPRAWLING NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR 45N 165E. A GULF LOW...AS EVIDENCED
BY RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TRACKING NORTH TOWARD MIDDLETON
ISLAND...AND WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE
NOT A FULL TROUGH/WAVE MERGER...THIS GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE
AND ENHANCE THE UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE LATER TODAY. AS THE
TROUGH SLIDES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH A MIX ALONG THE
COAST. STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

ALL THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC JET STREAM. THE ECMWF WAS
FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY AS THE
MAIN SYSTEM SLIDES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS AROUND COOK INLET...INCLUDING ANCHORAGE...WILL
SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AND PEAKING
AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE HILLSIDE AND/OR NEAR THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL AS ARCTIC AIR COMES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

FARTHER EAST...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN
AS THE GULF LOW MOISTURE TRACKS INLAND. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
CROSS BARRIER FLOW...SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER THAN USUAL OVER THE
BASIN...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
PASS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN BLOWING SNOW.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL END OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
TO THE NORTHERN BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON MON. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO WED.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...
SNOW WILL END ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN...AND WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH TRAPPED COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. TUE NIGHT
INTO WED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...EXCEPT FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EC AND WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON DEVELOPMENTS AFTER WED. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
REACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE THU INTO FRI...DECAYING IN THE
EASTERN BERING SAT NIGHT. DURING THE SAME PERIOD A WEAK LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BECOMES A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PERSISTS
INTO SAT. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING AND A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND.

IN THE WEST...RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO SW
ALASKA THU THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRI THROUGH SUN.

SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRI...MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST
AND SNOW INLAND FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 131.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...STORM 130 131.
         GALE 120 121 127 129 132 136 137 138 150 155 165 170 171 172
              173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 129 130 138 139 141 150 160
                              185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AHSENMACHER/DS DEC 13

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 PM AKST SUN DEC 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     SNOW             1 SE GLEN ALPS          61.09N 149.67W
12/22/2013  M2.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ANOTHER 2.5 INCHES RECORDED ON THE HILLSIDE ON TOP OF THE
            2.5 INCHES EARLIER REPORTED. TOTAL OF 5 INCHES OF NEW
            SNOWFALL.

&&

TPEPE