Small Craft Advisory 1014, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 180039
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE BY
WED MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WED
WITH A 994 MB LOW DEVELOPING 85 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WED NIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT
999 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-181500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-181500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-181500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-181500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-181500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-181500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2
FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 17 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT . SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST MON DEC 16 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL PLANETARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO SE AK
THIS MORNING...WITH SMALLER TROUGHS EXTENDING TO THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND FROM YAKUTAT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE BERING AND WESTERN AK. A JET IS
FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEAST GULF AT IT MOVES INTO CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW IS WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS A SECOND LOW
APPROACHES SOUTHEAST AK. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTERIOR AK AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE...A
LOW AROUND 40N 170E...IS SENDING AN ASSOCIATED FRONT TO THE
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT...AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS
GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WED.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS WILL ARRIVE TUE
MORNING. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM TUE EVENING NEAR ADAK...AND A
SECOND TRIPLE POINT WILL FORM A LOW ON A FRONT NEAR THE AKPEN WED
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE GULF...THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
REACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WED NIGHT...AND THE LOW ITSELF ON FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE BERING WILL END AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT TAKES OVER TONIGHT. E TO SE GALE TO STORM
FORCE WIND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE CHAIN TUE INTO WED...WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND GALES CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS REMNANT LOWS CONSOLIDATE AND MAINTAIN
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THAT TIME.

FOR SW AK....COLD AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH WIND AND SNOW. AS WARM AIR
ARRIVES WED NIGHT INTO THU...SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN...WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WHERE COLD AIR IS TRAPPED IN VALLEYS.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH WIND
AND SNOW COMBINING FOR A THOMPSON PASS BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON...AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN FOR SEWARD AND
WHITTIER. BY TUE AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AND END THE
WIND. THE BERING FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER KODIAK WED AND REACH THE
NORTH GULF COAST THU WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WED NIGHT INTO
THU. SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST
WED AFTERNOON AND MOVING INLAND WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. ANY MIXING
WITH RAIN AT SEA LEVEL WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND LATER ON THU.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
SAT...AND THEN ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT ARRIVES SUN OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE CHAIN...WHICH REACHES SW
AK BY MON. SE OF THE AK RANGE WILL HAVE MAINLY PERIODS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 130 138 141 150
         GALES 127 131 155 165 170 171 172 178 179
         STORMS 173 174 175 176 177
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 13