Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

117 
WWAK61 PAFC 302356
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
356 PM AKDT THU MAY 30 2013

AKZ111-310100-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130531T0600Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
356 PM AKDT THU MAY 30 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND OUT OF THE KNIK
RIVER VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU MAY 30 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AS WELL WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS EXTENDING INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND TOWARDS CAPE NEWENHAM. IN THE BERING SEA...THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE
NORTH OF SHEMYA. THE NAM MODEL HAS FOG AND STRATUS STARTING TO PUSH
UP THE SHELIKOF STRAIT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COOK INLET
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE STRATUS AND
FOG TO ADVECT FARTHER NORTH INTO COOK INLET BY FRIDAY. AS YESTERDAY
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AND WEAKENS SOME WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH FOG FOR COOK INLET THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DEPICTING CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS AN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING FROM JUNEAU TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A SWATH OF STRATUS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST FROM JUNEAU TO CORDOVA. ALONG THE ALBATROSS BANKS AND
THE SOUTHERN END OF KODIAK THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG
THAT IS STARTING TO PUSHUP INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SHELIKOF
STRAIT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THERE WILL BE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT OF THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN
OR EQUAL TO 30 PERCENT FOR THIS REGION. INLET BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF AREAS OF FOG FOR THE COOK INLET AND FROM THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EXTENDING TOWARDS THE BARREN ISLANDS. THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS AND FOG
STARTING TO ADVECT UP THE SHELIKOF STRAIT. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ALL THE WAY UP
THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT INTO THE COOK INLET AND THIS WILL HELP IN
ADVECTING THE STRATUS AND FOG UP THE INLET. THE THERMAL TROUGH
LOCATED THROUGH THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE THERMAL TROUGH IS POSITIONED THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND WILL AIDE IN PRODUCING ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVER HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY EVENING GOING INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THEREFORE...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO START PUSHING INTO THE
REGION.

THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BERING SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN
TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
WILL HAVE PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
COASTLINE THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND KNIK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA DUE TO A LOW TRACKING
TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND HELP TO KEEP SAFE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 111 145.
         FLOOD WATCH 145 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 176 411.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111.

PLD MAY 13