High Wind Watch 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

586 
WWAK72 PAFC 151343
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
443 AM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

...POWERFUL CYCLONE TO IMPACT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...

.A POWERFUL STORM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL IMPACT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
HIGH WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW.

AKZ191-160245-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0004.130116T0300Z-130117T0000Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0004.130116T0900Z-130116T2000Z/
WESTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA
443 AM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...EAST WIND 55 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ187-160245-
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0004.130116T1100Z-130116T2000Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
443 AM AKST TUE JAN 15 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
FROM ADAK WEST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...ADAK ISLAND AND LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

* WIND...EAST WIND 55 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO WARNING LEVEL SHORTLY AFTER
  MIDNIGHT AND DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKST MON JAN 14 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF PERSISTS...
THOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT EAST AND FLATTEN A BIT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER-JET ROUNDS IT'S CREST AND AN UPPER-LOW NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO IT. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR TOGIAK AND IS
ADVANCING NORTH WHILE IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONT SWINGS TO THE
GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL AK. STRONG COLD-ADVECTION FILTERS IN FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND THE LOW WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA NOW
ALL SNOW. AHEAD OF IT IN SOUTHCENTRAL...PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
RAIN...AND HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING OVER UPPER-COOK INLET. THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND STILL ARE
SEEING SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX. A SQUEEZED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
MAINLAND SYSTEM SUPPORTS STRONG SE GAP WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM.
FURTHER WEST...A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW 150 MILES SOUTH OF ADAK IS
FILLING QUICKLY...THOUGH SOME LINGERING PRECIP LINGERS OVER THE
CHAIN. ALSO OF NOTE IS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
COAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SATISFACTORILY CAPTURE THE MAIN WEATHER PICTURE. THE NAM SEEMS
TO BE DRAGGING THE COLD-ADVECTION THROUGH THE SW MAINLAND AND EASTERN
BERING A TOUCH TOO QUICKLY...BUT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING BETTER IN
THE WARMER AIRMASS IN SOUTHCENTRAL. ALL MODELS HOWEVER SHOW
CONSIDERABLE COOLING OF THE VERTICAL PROFILE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
850 MB TEMPS A TOUCH ABOVE 0 CELSIUS THIS MORNING ON THE PANC
SOUNDING TREND TO NEAR MINUS 9 CELSIUS AT 12Z TUE FOR EXAMPLE.

THE LOW OVER THE SW MAINLAND QUICKLY MOVES NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING WHILE THE FRONT TRACKS TO THE EASTERN GULF.
AS IT DOES SO...IT REINFORCES THE UPPER-LOW IN THE BERING STRAIT
WHICH THEN BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL AK.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS AROUND 150 MILES EAST
OF UNALASKA TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY ON TUE...AND THEN TO
NEAR SEWARD ON WED. THE ECMWF IS FASTEST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT
ALL MODELS HINT AT SOME QPF SPREADING BACK THROUGH
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF AS THESE FEATURES ADVANCE.
WEAK OFF-SHORE FLOW IS THEN DEPICTED BY THE SOLUTIONS ON THU.

OUT WEST...THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN MOVES TO AROUND 700 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KISKA AT 936 MB TUE AFTERNOON THEN TO 300 MILES SOUTH OF
ATTU ON WED AROUND 950 MB. FURTHER FILLING TO 960 MB AS IT MEANDERS
AROUND 200 TO 300 MILES WEST OF ATTU IS DEPICTED ON THU. MODELS HAVE
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TREND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO PASSING SHOWERS/FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...WITH THE FLOODING THREAT GRADUALLY
ENDING. STRONG WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM/WEST ANCHORAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS THE DOWN INLET
GRADIENT REVERSES WITH FROPA. RESPECTABLE ISALLOBARIC RISES RUSHING
UP COOK INLET SHOULD KEEP A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WELL INTO THIS
EVENING FROM THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
MIXING/FRICTION FROM THE WINDS MAY DELAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR INITIALLY. BUT COLD ADVECTION WILL BLEED IN...AND AS
THE WINDS FINALLY DO DIMINISH WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...EXPECT PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY TUE
MORNING. CLEARING SKIES AND RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
INVERSIONS MAY LEAD TO SOME MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT TUE. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING A TOUCH MORE CYCLONIC BY WED WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS TIME SAFELY ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

SOUTHWEST...
RAIN OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY WILL END AS SNOW
AS THE COLD ADVECTION TO THE WEST FILTERS THROUGH. THE LOW MOVING
AWAY TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA SHOULD HELP TAPER EVERYTHING TO
SHOWERS BY THIS EVENING. THE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS EAST OF UNALASKA
TONIGHT BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AKPEN BACK THROUGH SW AK ON
TUE...BUT FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK AT THIS JUNCTURE SO
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THIS FEATURE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND EVENTUALLY IT'S
RESIDUAL ENERGY GETS ABSORBED BY THE BIG STORM MOVING UP FROM JAPAN.
THIS NEXT STORM SHOULD FEATURE WARM ADVECTION AS IT'S FRONT
APPROACHES...SO EVEN IF PRECIP STARTS AS SNOW...IT SHOULD MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OR STRONGER
(NEGATING BLOWING SNOW THREATS). THE LOW WILL HAVE REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY BY THE TIME THE FRONT WORKS UP SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP WINDS
SUB WATCH/WARNING LEVEL. EITHER WAY CONDITIONS WILL TREND
CONSIDERABLY WORSE THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OVER THE WESTERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK FEATURES THE UPPER-LVL RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN BERING WEAKENING AS IT'S CREST PINCHES OFF INTO AN UPPER-HIGH
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WHILE IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM THE ALEUTIAN
SYSTEM BEGIN TO NUDGE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EAST INTO THE
GULF OF AK. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COMPLEX UPPER-LOW
MEANDERS OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW
ENERGY/MOISTURE TO PINWHEEL BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
AND ONCE AGAIN SOME WARMING TEMPERATURES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101
         FLOOD WATCH...101 111 121 125 131 135 145
         FLOOD ADVISORY...101
MARINE...GALE...130 132 137 138 140 150 175 176 351 352 411 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY