High Wind Watch 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

498 
WWAK71 PAFC 070010
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKDT SUN OCT 6 2013

...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE
TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
EXTENDING INTO THE REST OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

AKZ101-071330-
/X.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0016.131008T1200Z-131008T2100Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
410 PM AKDT SUN OCT 6 2013

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WIND...ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60 TO 70 MPH
  WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 40 MPH
  WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PEAK 
  WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING INTO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. 
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

383 
WWAK71 PAFC 071255
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 AM AKDT MON OCT 7 2013

...HIGH WINDS OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND LATE TONIGHT.
THE RESULTING INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EXTENDING
INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL ON TUESDAY MORNING.

AKZ101-080200-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0016.131008T1200Z-131008T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0017.131008T1200Z-131008T2100Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
455 AM AKDT MON OCT 7 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...60 TO 75 MPH
  WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60
  MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
  ALONG THE HILLSIDE. STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF
  THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
  MORNING INTO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
  LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. 
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SCHRECK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN OCT 6 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
BERING SEA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND POSITIONS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
JUST WEST OF UNALASKA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE STORM TRACK WITH THE GFS
MODEL WILL BRING HIGH END GALE FORCE/STORM WINDS TO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND BRISTOL BAY REGION...WHERE THE NAM/ECMWF WILL POSSIBLY
BRING HIGH END STORM FORCE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT
WILL CROSS INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB LOCATED WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTON SOUND INTO
BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND...WITH A POSITIVE TILTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
JUST EAST OF SHEMYA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY CORROBORATES THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REFLECTS THE STRONG 140 KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK OVER PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND TRANSITIONS TO MERIDONAL OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SMALL RIDGE UPSTREAM THAT WILL HELP TO
STABILIZE THE AREA BRIEFLY. DUE TO THE STRONG ZONAL JET STREAK OVER
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS WILL HELP IN STREAMING HIGH/MIDS CLOUDS IN
TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE TURNAGAIN
ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS DUE TO A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOMORROW COMBINED WITH A
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE...SOME OF THE WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN AT TIMES INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
PRIBILOF ISLAND EXTENDING TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN CAPES.
THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
NEAR UNALASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM TRACK WILL TARGET THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING STRONG
GALE/STORM FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION.

THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BERING SEA...
THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE IS THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN WITH A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED WEST OF THE SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE/STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
POSSIBLY STRONGER WINDS TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WE WILL STAY IN THE SAME WEATHER REGIME WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENTERING THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY AND TRACKING
TOWARDS THE SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRATUS/FOG AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PLD OCT 13