Gale Warning 94, NWS Anchorage, AK

707 
FZAK52 PAFC 250059
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 968 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTH OF ATTU WILL MOVE NEAR ATTU AT 977 MB FRI
MORNING THEN DRIFT TO 60 NM NORTH OF ATTU AND WEAKEN TO 995 MB SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
 SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-251500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.

.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-251500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-251500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. PACIFIC
SIDE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-251500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SW
WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BERING
SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 16 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...28 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 21 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM SHEMYA W...SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SHEMYA. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-251500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-251500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$
TP

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 23 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND EXTENDS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AS
WELL AS INTO THE ARCTIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH GULF COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
AND WILL DROP INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE ALASKA RANGE
LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR SOME
SNOW IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE JET STREAM REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH IS CENTERED WELL INTO THE ARCTIC NEAR 80N BUT
THE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND THEN INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THERE ARE TWO SURFACE LOWS THAT ARE INTERCONNECTED. THE
FIRST IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WHICH IS WEAKENING AS IT IS
BEING PULLED INTO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. ANOTHER LOW TO NOTE IS A 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF ATTU AND
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY NICE AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES BEGIN TO CREEP IN ON SATURDAY IN
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA AS THE GFS MODEL IS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE LOW NEAR ATTU WESTWARD AND THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING IN REGARDS TO A LOW HEADING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALL THE MODELS DO AVE THIS
FEATURE AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS WILL SEE
CONVERGENCE TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS RAPIDLY DECREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THERE IS A LARGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BY
SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF IS WEAKENING BUT
IS STILL BRINGING SOME SNOW ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES OUT OF THE LOW AND THEN UP COOK INLET AND INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN WILL CUT OFF FROM EAST TO WEST.
RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALSO END FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.
AREAS FROM THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH MATANUSKA VALLEY ARE
MAINLY SHELTERED FROM THE PRECIPITATION BY THE DOWN SLOPE OFF THE
KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS DOWN SLOPE IS A BIG DEAL IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
FREEZING RAIN BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA.
THE BIG WEATHER FEATURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS INTO A MESO-SCALE
LOW OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET LATE THURSDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF LIFT
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BRING SNOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BY
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY MAKE IN INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE MAIN
ENERGY IS WEAKENING AS THIS TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD THERE MAY NOT BE
MUCH PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA IS MOSTLY BEING INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE IN
THE BERING SEA AND SOME CLOUDS OVERRUNNING THE RIDGE FROM THE
WEAKENING FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE PART OF THE BRISTOL
BAY ZONE FROM KING SALMON AND NORTHEASTWARD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS
EXPECTED. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE SOME RAIN AND STRONG WINDS MOVE INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG TERM FORECAST PROBLEMS CONTINUE AND
THEREFORE CREATE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECASTS. WHAT DOES LOOK LIKELY IS FOR SOME MODERATE SOUTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN AFTER A CHILLY
WEEKEND. THE EXTENT OF THIS WARM UP IS YET TO BE DETERMINED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175. STORM 176. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 13