Gale Warning 925, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191229
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 990 MB LOW 170 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 82
NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 995 MB THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH LATE
FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-200300-
PORT VALDEZ
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-200300-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-200300-
VALDEZ ARM
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-200300-
CHINIAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-200300-
MARMOT BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-200300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2013

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN IS SETTING UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA
PUSHES INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS
CREATING A STRONG JET STREAM OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA....WHILE THERE IS A STRONG NORTHWEST JET OVER THE
EASTERN GULF ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS HELPING A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR SAND POINT ALONG THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THIS FRONT IS ELONGATING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD

WHICH IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG FROM BRISTOL BAY
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
SAND POINT WILL MOVE QUICKLY IN THIS JET AND BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
LATER TONIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARD THE YAKUTAT AREA
TOMORROW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING MUCH BETTER OVERALL TODAY WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE A FAST MOVING BUT INTENSE SYSTEM AND THAT
IS SOMETHING THE MODELS USUALLY STRUGGLE WITH. THE NAM ECMWF AND GEM
ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
GFS IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND HAS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE TOO
WEAK. THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG AS IT IS A GOOD 8 MB LOWER
THAN EITHER ECMWF OR GEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL PLAY INTO THE
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS IS ALSO A BIT
DIFFERENT IN ITS TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER WEST. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
THAT WILL ELONGATE WITH A PART REMAINING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND
ANOTHER BREAKING OFF AND HEADING TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FRI
NIGHT. THE GEM NAM AND ECMWF ONCE AGAIN HAVE A DECENT LOCK ON THE
TRACK BUT THE SPECIFICS ON HOW THE LOW WILL ELONGATE ARE STILL UP IN
THE AIR A BIT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECASTS IN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY REGION LATER IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW THAT PLAYS OUT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHEN A STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA
FROM THE SOUTH IT OFTEN WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES INTO AN ESTABLISHED
RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA
THERE IS GENERALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR WITH IT TO CHANGE COASTAL
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. THAT IS NOT THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
IS CAUSING CONCERN ABOUT THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FROM
BRISTOL BAY EASTWARD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR BRISTOL BAY AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE BIG
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS WHOLE EVENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRACK
WILL BE. THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA LOOKS TO BE IN AN IDEAL SPOT TO
GET WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST FROM
THREE TO SIX HOURS AS THE LOW WILL BE MOVING QUITE FAST...BUT WILL
CAUSE LOW VISIBILITIES AS IT DOES MOVE THROUGH. LESS CERTAIN IS HOW
STRONG THE WINDS IN THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL BE AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN KENAI BUT GUSTY WINDS
AND SNOWFALL WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES THERE AS WELL
OVERNIGHT. PLACES ELEVATED A LITTLE BIT SUCH AS THE HOMER BLUFF ARE
AT INCREASED RISK OF FULL SCALE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THIS SET UP.
THIS BRINGS US TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA WHERE THERE IS CONCERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALONG THE HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN
ARM THIS EVENING TO A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AT THE SURFACE AND WILL CAUSE SOME LIMITED VISIBILITIES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND TURNAGAIN ARM MAY SEE
STRONG WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWFALL CAUSING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE ONE LOW
EXITING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH ANOTHER ONE MOVING UP OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IN BETWEEN THESE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROVIDING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
RIDGE WILL START TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD MONDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCY AS TO THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WITH THE GFS GIVING
IT A MUCH GREATER NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WOULD KEEP THE MAINLAND DRY AND
COLD A BIT LONGER. BUT EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A TEMPORARY
FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING BY MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125.
         SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 101 121 135 161
MARINE...STORM 119 130 131.
         GALE 120 132-140 150 160 175 177-185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 139 140 141 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 13